Calculating out - how do I factor in villains outs?

Here is something that I don't really understand and I wondered if the combined wisdom of the 2+2ers can clear it up for me. I've come up with a very bad example to try and keep my point clear.

Given the following situation:

Hero A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop

5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Lets suppose by some mirracle I'm 100% certain of villains holding.

I figure that I still have 11 outs to beat his current hand. 9 more [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the 2 other A's

However, that is not the whole story. Villain has chances to beat my improved had should I make it.

7 outs (the other K for quads, or any other Q or 5 for a house)

How do you factor in Villains chances of improving past your improved hand when calculating how many outs you have? Do you do this at all or am I just making it all up? Remember I'm not asking if you should fold/call/raise in this particular situation, it's about how you work out your real chances of improving.

Thanks in advance.

Buy and read Small Stakes Hold 'Em - it'll explain everything.

In a nutshell, you are right that in the scenario you describe you have 11 outs to improve. If you are considering calling a bet you can make a decision on whether there is enough money in the pot vs. the size of bet you need to make relative to the odds of hitting your outs.

Assuming you hit, you then know the odds of villain hitting his draw and can make a similar calculation of value.

Of course in the real world you don't know exactly what villain has and you can only put him on a range of hands. You therefore need to consider the following:
(i) you may be ahead
(ii) one of your outs may help villain (unlikely here)
(iii) villain may overtake you on the river

Thus the real calculation requires a lot of factors to be taken into account and involves concepts such as implied odds, reverse implied odds, discounting outs and redraws.

Thanks for the answer. I accept that this is not a 'real world' example, I wanted to try and make things clearer by putting villain on a hand not a range and not stating bet/pot size etc etc.

Thanks for the book refference I'll give that a go.

In principle I was just curious to understand if I should factor in villains out or not when making my decision based on my outs, pot size, implied odds etc.

I know when there is a card that may give villain a better hand as well as me I discount it as an out. So for example if I'm counting outs to a flush then I remove any that would pair the board as this might make villain a house. (if you see what I mean). I didn't know what to do about the cards that are not my outs but do improve villain.

[TimsterToo]

Good question!

I think that if you are 100% certain of your villains holding you have to factor in everything you know every time you have to make a decision. So yes you'd have to account for his draw to the nuts if you improve or not.

Knowing it all makes it a rather easy decision though, it all depends on the size of the pot and how much you have to contribute to see the next hand.

If you haven't played much, you might be better with "Getting started in Hold'em" (Miller et al) that's another 2+2 book, probably more suited to beginners than SSHE. SSHE does assume a certain degree of knowledge and experience.

In the interests of balance you could always try anoth beginners book "Winning Low Limit Hold'em (3rd edition, Jones). The 2nd edition got a slating for advocating "weak-tight" play. The 3rd edition is supposed to be much improved.

[4_2_it]

Don't forget that villain will have 10 outs on the river. In your example, is this limit or NL? If limit and there are 5 other callers, it will always be correct to try to draw out. If NL, then based upon stack sizes, you should consider pushing which gives you the added out of villain possibly folding his hand.

The way I do it is that I think about what pot odds (forget implied odds for simplicity) do I need to call. I need better than 4 to 1. If a spade comes on the turn, what pot odds does villain need to call. If possible you want to force villain to make a mistake. In NL, it is easier to do this than in limit where if there are already enough bets in the middle, both of you would be correct in betting/raising/calling.

Thanks all for the comments. I was trying to keep it simple by not giving a proper hand history (this is not a proper hand) and proper ranges etc.

I thought that if I could understand the principle as applied to hand where there was perfect information then I could take that principle into the real world where villain has a range (say KK, QQ, AKs maybe JJ - I'm assuming that there was a raise, re-raise type encounter before the flop that pushed out all other players but put neither hero or villain all-in and that we are playing NLHE) and there were real numbers for the current pot, stacks etc.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course in the real world you don't know exactly what villain has and you can only put him on a range of hands. You therefore need to consider the following:
(i) you may be ahead
(ii) one of your outs may help villain (unlikely here)
(iii) villain may overtake you on the river

Thus the real calculation requires a lot of factors to be taken into account and involves concepts such as implied odds, reverse implied odds, discounting outs and redraws.

[/ QUOTE ]

What Lawman said.

However, to give a short answer to your admittedly-contrived example, you know that his redraw on the river means your flush won't always be good (but your set of aces will), therefore you need slightly better pot odds than you would otherwise need. Because the redraw is a 3:1 shot I believe you'd discount the 11 spade outs by 25% (to about 8) giving you about 10 outs total, but don't take my math as Gospel. A 10 out draw needs to get 37:10 or 3.7:1 from the pot.

Implied odds still apply, so you don't quite need (47-11):11 -> 36:11 -> 3:1 to see the next card -- 2.5:1 might do. Then again, if it's NLHE and your stack is big, you'll want to manipulate the pot to make it wrong for him to stay in to see the river. So implied odds might not matter that much, if your opponent plays correctly.

[PokerCat69]

If I'm drawing to an OESD and its 2-suited against me I'll count it as 7 outs instead of 8. Counting your outs at 6 would be rather weak because its not 100% certain every time your out makes someone else a flush. When it comes to the flush I don't bother to discount possible outs giving someone the boat.
Really how do you know someone has a set?