Flopped nuts but very vulnerable

[Alchemist]

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (9 handed)

You've only been playing for 1 orbit and have no real reads except that some of the players are terrible and could be holding about anything.

You are the BB and are dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Lots of limpers but no raisers. You see a free flop with 6 other players.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks to you.

[GooperMC]

I really don’t want to see this check around because I don't want someone to catch a 10 high flush and then not let it go so I would bet. However this hand can't withstand much action because it is very unlikely that it will be the nuts by the river and you are probably playing for 1/2 the pot.

My reply: Bet and toss it if there is any action.

Think about it this way. Lets count the ways that your str8 will not longer be the nuts
- 8 flush cards
- 6 str8 counterfeit cards (3 6's, 3 7's)
- 8 board pairing cards (3 3's, 2 5's, 3 4's)
- Some backdoor draws lets say about 2 outs worth.
Total: 24 outs.

That means you will not have the nuts on the river 78.8% of the time.

Yes not all these cards will beat you but this board looks to be action heavy so do you really want to be calling a cap on the river playing for 1/2 the pot with anything less then the nuts?

This seems like a classic O8 trap hand. Don't get sucked in.

[Koss]

Gooper is right, your hand will be counterfeited so often that you really have to play this carefully. I'm going to check the flop and fold to lots of action. If I get to see a cheap turn card and I'm still sitting pretty after it, then I might spring into action and go for a check-raise to try to make draws pay to see the river. Otherwise I have no problem letting the hand go. The nice thing about a hand like this is that if you still have the nuts by the river, you will likely get action and can hopefully 1/4 a couple players and maybe catch them in a raising war.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
My reply: Bet and toss it if there is any action.


[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I sort of did that. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I put a bet out just to see how the other players responded and the subsequent flop action was just ...weird (HH next post). I figure at least one A2 will be lurking and be all over the flop so that wasn't a surprise. But *no one* wanted to leave.

[ QUOTE ]

That means you will not have the nuts on the river 78.8% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
I hadn't had a chance to run any sims yet, but I'm somewhat shocked that it's this high.

[ QUOTE ]

This seems like a classic O8 trap hand. Don't get sucked in.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did I ever get sucked in. Every time I clicked 'call' I was telling myself: This isn't good, I should really fold. But the pot's getting so big, and only one more card to come!

[Alchemist]

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.
<font color="blue">
Ok, only one more small bet back to me, no problem. Erm, someone call/raised...ok 2 more small bets total.</font>

Turn: (13 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.
<font color="blue">
Still safe for now but now I have to worry about club flush draws. Can I survive one more card?</font>

River: (31 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 43 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Pot: $42 | Rake: $1
Board: [ 3h 5c 4h 9c 2d ]
Hero bet $9, collected $21, net +$12 (showed hand) [ 7s 6h Ks
Jd ]
LO: 7,6,4,3,2
HI: a straight, three to seven

MP2 bet $9, collected $10.50, net +$1.50 (showed hand) [ 2s As
Td 8c ]
LO: 5,4,3,2,A
HI: a straight, ace to five

Button bet $9, collected $10.50, net +$1.50 (showed hand) [ Ah 7c
9s 3d ]
LO: 5,4,3,2,A
HI: a straight, ace to five
</font>

Sadly I wasn't able to see the cards of the other 3 players who folded on the river.
I was really torn what to do. With all the betting raising by the A2 hands, I felt it wouldn't make a difference (as far as getting people to fold) if I did any of the betting. So I just hung on for the ride and hoped for the best.

What are some thoughts about the turn action?

[Koss]

Yikes, scary turn. Now you've got half the deck to dodge. But you've definitely got the best high hand now and your implied odds are good. I'd cap the turn. Like I said before, you'll get action on the river with this hand if it holds up, and you did. It's nice when you can find players who will raise the river with nothing but a wheel and 4 wheel cards on the board. How are you NOT getting 1/4'd here? It sucks to be MP2 who knows full well what is about to happen, yet is powerless against an idiot who thinks his hand is worth raising.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice when you can find players who will raise the river with nothing but a wheel and 4 wheel cards on the board. How are you NOT getting 1/4'd here? It sucks to be MP2 who knows full well what is about to happen, yet is powerless against an idiot who thinks his hand is worth raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh yeah, I had already pegged the button as a moron for playing hands like the one I had here UTG. With the river 2 I'm somewhat amazed none of the other players had a wheel by then. Would have been pretty funny seeing the low get chopped 5 ways. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[gergery]

I’d be more likely to fold than to bet.

You have the nut straight right now, but there are not Oscars given out for “Best Hand On the Flop But Before the Turn”.

With 6 opponents and a made A2 low possible, you must win at showdown to win, so are now drawing to blanks. You need no hearts, 3,4,5,6,7 or runner-clubs. That’s roughly 19 cards, depending on how you want to count it all out. So you’ll have the nuts on the river ~32% of the time, maybe alittle more if the above cards don’t make someone a specific hand, but maybe less if you’re tied for high right now. And that 32% is for half the pot, and will return you only half your bets put in, so maybe its worth 40% of the pot. So your equity here is maybe 13% or so.

So I’d want at least 7:1 to continue, which you don’t have. And, that is for here to the river. I can envision some assumptions where playing this out makes you money, but on balance you will not be missing much by folding.

--Greg

[grandgnu]

I also agree with the others, that I'm checking and folding against heavy action. If there is a lot of players in the pot, then the A/2 players can raise and re-raise, even if they get 1/4th'ed I think they still make a profit against the other 4-6 people in the hand. Plus, some of the A/2 hands might have had other strong draws (flush, two pair, set, etc.) as well in this situation.

[Ribbo]

Where do you get this stupid idea that you have flopped the nuts? All you have flopped is a drawing hand to half a pot.
Please remember this in future.