Noblepoker 1 million SnG...odds of this?

[godofgamblers]

I stopped playing at Noble and started playing at PP/Euro again...and I just went on a nice run and won 4 straight SnG's...($33's). I was just lamenting over the fact that if I was at noble, if I won the next one I'd get 25,000, and if I won 2 more I'd get a million [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

I'm just wondering, what are the actual chances of winning these if you're a solid SnG player? These tournaments seem to be very good EV, since you can play 1st-2nd in five straights and get a free $250, and all firsts we all know the huge prize behind that. Would a simple multiplying probability of getting first based on my own stats be the correct answer or is there more to take into account? (I.e I get first 14% of the time...therefore .14 x .14 x .14 x .14....) Just found it interesting.

[KramerTM]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;sb=5&o=