Trying to buy some outs...

scrub · #1 04-03-2005, 05:49 PM

Preflop supercoldcaller is horrendous--just about as bad as they come. His basic preflop strategy seems to be to see every flop. His postflop strategy seems to be to raise the flop with no pair or an underpair and to call the flop with any legit holding.

Coldcapper has been running extremely well, playing a bit too loose preflop and reraising me a bit too liberally. On the passive side postflop, particularly for how well he's been running. Anyway, based on some previous hands, I'd give him credit for a typical player's 3-betting distribution here--he could have a wide range of PPs and big aces.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: scrub is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, scrub 3-bets, MP1 caps, 2 folds, Button (Terrible_Guy)/ calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, scrub calls.

Flop: (20.66 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, scrub checks, MP1 bets, Terrible_Guy raises, BB folds, UTG folds, scrub calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.33 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
scrub checks, MP1 checks, Terrible_Guy bets, scrub raises

scrub

Brainwalter · #2 04-03-2005, 06:30 PM

I don't get how this buys you any outs, unless you're against another AK (or think a J will fold, lol)

That's not to say it's not possible that you're ahead of terrible guy and may get him HU this way

scrub · #3 04-03-2005, 06:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's not to say it's not possible that you're ahead of terrible guy and may get him HU this way

[/ QUOTE ]

And from your tone, I guess that's a bad thing?

scrub

Steve Giufre · #4 04-03-2005, 07:01 PM

I dont see how you buy any outs by raising this turn. If you mean you are checkraising to try to get the third guy to fold a better hand, and hopefully get HU with a worse hand, I have no problem with that.

This pot is real big, I dont see the harm in putting in the extra bet to try to win it unimproved, I actually kinda like it in this spot.

scrub · #5 04-03-2005, 07:04 PM

8 some of the time. 8 and 5 some of the time.

Winning unimproved is also a possibility.

scrub

steveyz · #6 04-03-2005, 07:05 PM

Why not just 3-bet the flop? And I wouldn't call this buying any outs (what outs are you buying?). This is more like protecting what could very well be the best hand. The 5 (and 8) aren't likely to have helped MP so if he had a big ace, you likely have the best hand or are chopping.

scrub · #7 04-03-2005, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just 3-bet the flop? And I wouldn't call this buying any outs (what outs are you buying?). This is more like protecting what could very well be the best hand. The 5 (and 8) aren't likely to have helped MP so if he had a big ace, you likely have the best hand or are chopping.

[/ QUOTE ]

Between 3-betting the flop and checkraising the turn, which option is more likely to get MP1 to fold a big A or medium pair?

scrub

scrub · #8 04-03-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And I wouldn't call this buying any outs (what outs are you buying?).

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably should have used a different post title so that people didn't fixate on a term that they read in Ed's book.

So, let's assume that the guy who coldcalled 4 will often have a lone 5, a 22-44 and 66-77, or random cards that aren't a pair and don't contain an A--this was consistent with his play over the hour or two he had been at my table. Let's also assume that the guy who coldcapped, based on the way he played the flop and his overly liberal reraising standards, will often have 99-QQ and ATs-AKs, AQo-AKo.

Let's look at when the coldcapper has 99/TT. If we don't make him fold on the turn, we have 6 outs assuming that coldcaller doesn't have an A or a J.

If we make him fold on the turn, we will often be ahead of coldcaller's hand, and will have gained a tremendous amount of equity in a huge pot.

Sometimes, coldcaller will have a hand like 22-44 when we make coldcapper fold. Now, we have picked up 3 outs for the 5 pairing up and 3 outs for the 8 pairing up in a huge pot by folding the coldcapper, effectively doubling our equity in a huge pot.

Sometimes, coldcaller will have a 5 or a hand like 66-77, here we still pick up 3 outs in a huge pot by getting 99 to fold.

Sometimes, coldcapper will also have a big ace. Getting him to fold a hand with so much equity against coldcaller's likely holdings is also a huge coup.

Whether or not it should be called "buying outs" or "trying get another AK to fold" isn't the reason I posted the hand, and it shouldn't be the focus of the discussion either.

scrub