99

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
You got to start out with a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually when I do PS calcs for possible 2+2ers I try to give them the range based on that Mebenhoe chart since so many people seem to use it.

Anyway, the chart calls for about 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo

Flop:

Board: Qc 5c 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.3739 % 27.92% 00.46% { 9d9h }
Hand 2: 20.3582 % 20.09% 00.27% { random }
Hand 3: 51.2679 % 50.77% 00.49% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }


Safe Turn:

Board: Qc 5c 8d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.1034 % 29.72% 00.39% { 9d9h }
Hand 2: 19.4412 % 19.32% 00.12% { random }
Hand 3: 50.4554 % 49.98% 00.47% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }



Not much equity change, so I don't think I like waiting for a safe card.

[NomadCat]

My initial thought was to bet out on the flop to push out the button if CO will raise with AK, but if button is truly that bad, let him stick around.

I think I call the flop bet and donk the turn, provided it's not an ace or a club. I think I'd have to fold the turn if CO raised. I would c/f an ace on the turn. For a typical TAG, I can't think of a lot of 3-betting hands you're ahead of.

Now, if you think CO's opinion of you isn't very high (maybe you've been raising a lot PF and stealing or not going to showdown), his range widens considerably and I'd like to get to showdown cheaply.

edit: 'cause I can't read...

[tansoku]

If you know CO is solid, then he probably knows you are as well. He has to know that button won't fold, and neither will you getting 12:1 on the flop. If your read is correct then he only does this with a piece of the flop because button won't raise to drive you out and he also has to know there's a good chance you will check-raise him here.

So AQ/KQ TT+ and broadway clubs?

No better hand is folding, and even if you have the best hand now there are a boatload of overcards + clubs that can rain on your parade, especially with button in there.

Still, it looks like you've got about 30% equity from the pokerstove you did.
I go weak/tight here and check/call it down, fold if button starts raising CO's bets...
.7 x -2.5 = -1.75
.3 x 8 = 2.4
+.65

[Duerig]

I'd probably raise the flop and lead the turn if CO just calls (unless an A falls). If the CO 3-bets, I'd call. I'd check call any 6, 7, T, J because of the extra gutshot outs and check fold anything else.

I would just bet the flop, bet the turn if he doesnt raise the flop. Having the bad button stops him raising a hand you beat. This way you pay 1sb to find out, rather than possibly two bb.

[colgin]

I think this is a tough spot. Based on your PS calculations you seemingly have enough equity to call this down and see a showdown as you are theoretically getting around 4:1 to check-call to a showdown. However, being OOP you face a real reverse implied odds problem of potentially losing the maximum with this strategy when you are behind but wnning the minimum (particulalry in light of CO being good) when you're hadn is good. Not to mention the risk of giving dangerous free cards.

So, just checking and calling doesn't seem like a good startegy. Nor does check-folding the flop getting 12:1 immediate odds with the very real possibility of being ahead.

That leaves me thinking that this is one of those hands where check-calling the flop (as you did) is best tosee how thing develop. Depending on the turn card, you can either check-fld or donkbet. I would likely donkbet most safe looking cards on the turn preparing to fold to a raise by CO.

[oxymoron]

Loose people will CC two PRF but not always two cold with air on the flop (they are definitely calling one though with anything). I prefer to bet the flop and hope that it's raised. I want to get this HU if possible.

[TomBrooks]

FLOP as Played:
If you check the flop, CO will probably autobet with anything. You could have the best hand. Don't want to fold. Your hand is not good enough to checkraise. I call.

FLOP OTHER:
That being said, I think you'd have been better off betting out and calling a raise. A CO raise might knock the Button out which is good, but if he stays it is not all bad since he could have anything and he is padding the pot for you guys. You might have the best hand. You could wind up giving a free card (though CO probably won't take one.)

Note there are also four cards that could come on the turn that will give you a gutshot which adds a little value to your hand.