Curtains Hand - Early Position Push/No Push

[runner4life7]

Are you factoring in the blinds hitting you?

[jeffraider]

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Am i not using the equity modeling part of power tools right? These blinds are going to kill us and I think most people are missing that. I can see folding because there are 7 people, 5 handed this becomes super easy.

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Yeah the blinds are killing us it's a shame we never get dealt a hand or get a walk in the blinds, otherwise it wouldn't be such doomsday scenario!

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Thats a good point, although I doubt you'll get a walk in the blinds here.

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Yeah but the third scenario is that you win the pot when you make a hand after an unraised flop or you're checked to if the the SB opencompletes. So there's some good things that can happen in the blinds, too many people seem to think the sky is falling when they're nearly in the blinds.

[ZBTHorton]

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Are you factoring in the blinds hitting you?

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Are you thinking about the fact that your more likely than not going to have a better hand in the BB next hand?

[runner4life7]

I dont know how to factor that in with math so no

[fluorescenthippo]

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k i just did it in sngpt. if you have A7o and they only call with better hands (22+, A7o) this is an easy push(+.4), and thats not factoring the blinds killing you. if they call with anything else its more +EV

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Hey. If they call with 22+/A7+, a push is worth just + .1%. You have to include suited hands in the calling range as well. It is worth + .2% if you push with 76s and they have the same calling range.

The key is that you have to push the right types of hands. Suited cards go way up in value. Connected cards go way up in value. Push hands that play well against suspected calling ranges. A7o doesn't play very well against tighter ranges though it is decent. Something like A9o would be a clear push in the hand presented. J7o plays horribly against tighter ranges and can be thrown away without blinking. I would much rather push 32s then J7o.

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yea my bad. +.4 was something else. but the point is its still +EV. you make it sound like .1% is not enough considering we are about 75% likely to lose 1/4 our stack next hand. (with equity modeling of 75% this is +1.5% EV btw)

[Roman]

I push this, the fact that BB is pretty short tips this over for me.

[tigerite]

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Pushing is not as terrible as everyone makes it out to be, as we do have some FE for sure. I still prefer folding though.

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Indeed. The ranges have to be in the region of 9%-12%. It's far from a terrible push, but quite a thin one. I might make it on some tables. The short stack is less of a worry as he's acting right after us, so in theory at least, should be less likely to call.

Of course the problem is the BB should call a lot, he only needs to be 36% favourite against our range. This for me probably tips it just to a fold.

[Mr_J]

I agree pushing isn't terrible here. My move would probally be to fold and call a push in the bb next hand.

If I push here I will be called by a hand that beats mine. If I call someone from my bb, I could easily find myself calling an any 2 push from a desperate shortstack or loose large stack, which will be ok considering my odds.

Maybe it's also better for image. You are kind of expected to call from your bb, but pushing with J7 UTG shows you are capable of pushing trash.

I'm not sure you have much FE at all. Shortie in the bb, another shortie who will have an itchy trigger finger, and a couple of large stacks who might challenge a UTG push from a shortstack.

There's also always the chance that your BB is folded to you.

No matter what you do it's a $hitty situation.

[tigerite]

Incidentally I push J7s here without even thinking about it. Unless the BB really knows what he's doing and is going to call me with a stupid amount. The ranges are 12-17%.

[tigerite]

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I would rather shove J7 than A7 here.

edit: Well, maybe not. I don't know how common it is for people to call with A3 etc up there.

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A7o push is unexploitable. J7o is certainly not.