River Value Bet?

scotty34 · #1 12-12-2005, 03:57 AM

Here is a very marginal one.

Villain here is a 65/8/1.2 fish - one of the rare LP-A types. He has overplayed his hands before, such as limping in AK then raising twice on a 636 flop (to his credit, he did win the hand UI vs A7).

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero...

#2 12-12-2005, 04:03 AM

Bet/fold. He'll probably call with everything he'd bet with and maybe a bit more.

gehrig · #3 12-12-2005, 04:05 AM

yeah thats an easy bet

youre probably behind when called but you cant really check/fold here and check/calling just lets him put in money when hes ahead

scotty34 · #4 12-12-2005, 04:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah thats an easy bet

youre probably behind when called but you cant really check/fold here and check/calling just lets him put in money when hes ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

So where is the value from betting if I am behind when he calls?

yellowjack · #5 12-12-2005, 04:08 AM

Bet/fold. If you hesitated on the river, possibly bet/call as villain may pick up on the tell.

#6 12-12-2005, 04:10 AM

Err yellowjack if we're really worried about villain exploiting a tell we should hesitate, check the river and induce the bluff. Bet/calling is spewing in this situation.

yellowjack · #7 12-12-2005, 04:12 AM

Alternatively, our hesitation then betting can grab us an extra bet a hand we beat.

PokerBob · #8 12-12-2005, 04:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a very marginal one.

Villain here is a 65/8/1.2 fish - one of the rare LP-A types. He has overplayed his hands before, such as limping in AK then raising twice on a 636 flop (to his credit, he did win the hand UI vs A7).

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

nothing says, "I sure am dumb" like the open-limp on the button and then the go-all-bonkers-on-the-flop. I really have no idea what the best river line is. If he has AK-AQ, is he calling the river? Is he betting it? If he has AA-QQ, is he savy enough to raise your river bet? Meh. I kinda like bet/fold.

gehrig · #9 12-12-2005, 04:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah thats an easy bet

youre probably behind when called but you cant really check/fold here and check/calling just lets him put in money when hes ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

So where is the value from betting if I am behind when he calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

if youre a 2-1 dog to have the best hand when the action goes bet call and a 3-1 dog to have the best hand when the action goes check bet call, then you should bet out

scotty34 · #10 12-12-2005, 04:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah thats an easy bet

youre probably behind when called but you cant really check/fold here and check/calling just lets him put in money when hes ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

So where is the value from betting if I am behind when he calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

if youre a 2-1 dog to have the best hand when the action goes bet call and a 3-1 dog to have the best hand when the action goes check bet call, then you should bet out

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you come up with those numbers? What makes it more likely I am behind when it goes check-call - could he not attempt to bluff me? Could he not be value-betting A7 or a worse 8 or a smaller PP?