The Dilemma

[rwanger]

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CALL THE FLOP.

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Put me down for that too. I know you have a huge draw, but you are not going to be happy if someone else reraises and you lose the rest of your customers. Everyone else has some kind of hand or draw, and you're drawing to the nuts.

You can't be that comfortable if you hit your ace, nor the bottom end of your straight (you could be up against one already). And, as mentioned, you don't want to blow out other flush draws.

Raising is not *wrong*, but I think there is a ton of value in just calling, especially since you are last to act.

[ThePortuguee]

We can agree, right, that the decision is between raising and calling, right? Folding is out of hte question?

Additionally, I think if you raise, it has to be a big one. I think a pot sized raise is the the right play. The analysis is long.

My initial thoughts were:

I dont think we've paid enough attention to the fact that there's almost definintely another flush draw, or two, out there, and that you're drawing to the bottom end of the straight. There's a lot to this hand, since your opponents can have a massive range of hands. You could be up against two pair, set, straight, straight draw, flush draw, straight and flush draw, overpair, and any combination of the above. Given this, I think the things to consider when deciding whether to raise are:

-Is it a semi-bluff or a raise for value?

-If it's a semi-bluff, do you really expect three opponents to have hands they can fold after putting 12 dollars into the pot? Are your opponents likely to be capable of folding two pair? An overpair? A set (probably not)?

-If it's a raise for value, what sort of value are you really getting here? You're drawing to the low end of the straight and, imo, two of your diamond outs are probably in the hand of one of your opponents.

Those were my initial thoguhts. I talked for a while with a friend of mine abotu this hand and I think that after everything, a pot-sized raise (i. e. 70 or so) is probably correct, for value. This is based on the possible range of each player's hands, which is admittedly extremely wide. SB can have set, two pair, or straight as his most likely holdings (imo), and BB can have about the same, with flush and straight draws thrown in. I think for MP most likely reads are overs with flush draw, or a hand like TT or JJ, though again, set is also possible. That said, one of them is probably stupid and hanging around with a one-pair hand like A8, and MP could just be an idiot with overcards thinking hes getting 4:1.

Given the range of hands, I dont think you have a lot of fold equity at all. IMO, at least one of your opponents is usually going to have a hand that calls you, be it set, two pair, straight, or (from MP) OP. But, you're in good shape against eveyrthing but a high straight, and frequently enough a smaller flush draw is going to come along, and becuase of that, a substantial raise (that is, about pot, roughly 70-80), will accomplish the goal of getting your money in with an edge. Plus there's added value from the few times when you do manage to pick up the whole pot.

If you get one caller, I think you're playing passively until you make your hand. If SB or MP calls flop bet then shoves into you on turn, you probably have to fold, since theres' almost no way your A out is good and you'll only be getting like 5:2. If you're called and you make your hand, you're pretty likely to stack anyone who's made it that far.

Thoughts?

[FlyingStart]

I think a raise can be good if you are excellent at reading hands.. I think a good percentage of the time you will see a blank turn, have one or two callers and a massive pot you now have no clue of how to go about. If you are excellent at reading hands the turn should play easier since you then should know when to semibluff or when to take the freecard. Excellent hand reading should also enable you to better calculate FE on the flop which IMO is a crucial factor here

[Woolygimp]

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I think it's tempting to raise here... but I think that the pot is small enough that it doesn't matter so much to take it down.

Call. The times you stack someone else who is flushing will more than make up for it.

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/agree

If someone does have a set/overpair/twopair and puts you all-in on the flop your in a tricky position (It'd be an easy call, just not a call i'd like to make). You don't want to push out worse FD's and the pots not large enough to want an immediate take down. If i used a raise here for anything it'd be to get a free river.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

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If I dont raise, I cant respect myself in the morning.

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Respect is all you'll have left in the morning.

[pzhon]

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It's possible that you will get the made hands to fold

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i don't think this is accurate based on the betting...i think sets or 2 pair are going along for the ride

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By made hand, I don't mean just a set or 2-pair. Each hand has some made strength and some drawing strength. You are behind weak made hands like AK and T7, and you could easily get these to fold with a raise. In fact, after the preflop raiser just calls, I expect him to have overcards which could easily include an ace.

It's great if you can get a hand like 55 to fold, leaving you up against a lower flush draw who probably won't try to bluff you off on the river if he misses, but will stack off if the flush hits.

With 9 diamonds and 3 more 4 and 9's = 15 outs I like your bet. You will likely take down the pot here. You are also drawing to the nuts until a pair hits the board. Good.
If you don't win it here, your odds drop off huge if only one person calls.
I'd bet the pot again on the turn, thus thoroughly decieving any caller.
If you hit it on the river, I'm all in.
If you don't hit it on the river, I'd still make a large bet, as many times the other caller is also drawing and will fold figuring you for trips or an over pair.

There is a qualifier here though. I only do this with TAG players, as they seldom call. LAG's call far more often.

If you just call down the flop and turn, and then hit your flush on the river, isn't your hand pretty apparent to any opponent?
If that happens, how much do you bet?
Will all in just fold everyone??
IMO there's far more "equity" or "betting value" in the hand if you play it aggressively from the flop on, and you may win it without ever hitting your hand.
Any other flush draw will NOT automatically assume that you were drawing to the flush, cuz "why was he betting so big on the flop then?"
Comments?

[Big_Jim]

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We can agree, right, that the decision is between raising and calling, right? Folding is out of hte question?

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OBVIOUSLY.

[Big_Jim]

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How about just low-raising or min-raising?

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I don't wanna give any set or straight the chance to blow out the other flush draws.