AKo in the CO

Jake (The Snake) · #1 12-10-2005, 03:17 AM

QTip's recent JJ hand reminded me of this one which I thought was interesting...

Most players are pretty loose and bad. MP1 is pretty tight so the cap likely means QQ+ and maybe AK. MP2 is especially loose and terrible.

5/10 (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.8 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero...

toss · #2 12-10-2005, 03:20 AM

You're getting waaaaay too much to fold here. Peel one off.

Jake (The Snake) · #3 12-10-2005, 04:06 AM

I think this hand is a lot more complicated than that, but yeah the pot is pretty damn big.

How many outs are you giving Hero?

At what pot size would you change your mind?

Harv72b · #4 12-10-2005, 04:23 AM

I'm peeling, but a little part of me is hoping I don't turn an ace or especially king. FWIW, I'm not the opponent (I don't think, anyway), but I'm much more apt to cap with AK from OOP if there are 1 or more bad players in the pot as well.

#5 12-10-2005, 04:28 AM

you have 4.5 outs, peel!

xwillience · #6 12-10-2005, 04:33 AM

im folding this flop, you had a chance to hit and you missed. If this guy is that tight than you could have no solid outs and be drawing to two running cards. At best you have 6 outs in which case you have the odds, but the hands going to SD with you or without. I say watch and take notes.

#7 12-10-2005, 04:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you have 4.5 outs, peel!

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting 4.5?

I say 3.

Harv72b · #8 12-10-2005, 04:37 AM

You could even discount a little further, like to 2.5 or so, based on the possibility that one of the donks just reverse dominated you on the flop.

But the pot is ginormous, the donks will pay off (even if the capper won't) if you catch your ace and it's good, and you'll actually probably have odds to continue if you turn a gutshot.

#9 12-10-2005, 04:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You could even discount a little further, like to 2.5 or so, based on the possibility that one of the donks just reverse dominated you on the flop.

But the pot is ginormous, the donks will pay off (even if the capper won't) if you catch your ace and it's good, and you'll actually probably have odds to continue if you turn a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, don't worry. I wasn't planning on folding this puppy.

xwillience · #10 12-10-2005, 04:51 AM

I understand the desire to peel here, but how can you find value in it. For the sake of discussion, MP1 has QQ, giving you Two clean overcards. Now you have two other players to consider, a flush draw on the board, you have to instantly discount 2 outs at least partially, plus a lame little str8 draw out there that you could be drawing with, and the possibility of reverse domination. While the pot is HUGE no doubt, peeling one now is just grounds for folding on the turn. What card are you hoping for? An Ace, a King, a str8 draw card? Now lets re-open MP1's hand range and he could already have two of your outs in his hand. In this case he has JJ and your drawing to a straight and praying the board doesnt pair.