JJ

crunchy1 · #1 12-09-2005, 09:25 AM

Both Villians are relatively unknown. I've got stats - but only from about 4 orbits.

UTG+1 is a LAG (55/12/1). I've seen him show down some pretty weak holdings that he's been somewhat aggressive with after the flop - more so than I would've expected from only a 1AF.

MP3 is more of the fishy-type (55/0/.75). I haven't seen anything he's shown down. My best read is that the call button is his best friend.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero...

What do you think so far? What's my plan for the rest of the hand?

Bill C · #2 12-09-2005, 09:32 AM

With a third player in the hand, even if he is a fish, and with all the possibilities on this board, I think I'd just call here and accept the overcall from the fish.
bc

thejameser · #3 12-09-2005, 09:40 AM

for the range i gave him you are a huge dog. if you think he would play QJ or Q10 or some crap this way you could call. against a typical player you are not good enough here to merit a call. that said, you know his wtsd and w$sd %'s and you have seen what he has shown down so i would call or fold based on previous hands.

sean c · #4 12-09-2005, 09:42 AM

My question is the flop. What are your toughts behind the call? Peel and fold the turn UI? Villian has basically played his hand like he has a king you beat almost nothing on the river and your not closing the action but given the fact that lags love to bluff when shown weakness and the fact that you will probably never get the fish to fold a hand that beats you i see no reason to raise so i would probably call hoping to pick off a missed straight draw from the lag. The flop and turn are the interesting streets here IMO.

#5 12-09-2005, 10:50 AM

In order
Flop: 1.Folding 2.Calling 3.Raising
Turn: 1.Checking 2.Folding 3.Raising
River: 1.Folding 2.Raising 3.Calling

I think if you're not going to fold on the river, you have to raise. 

EDIT: See below for revision.

sean c · #6 12-09-2005, 10:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In order
Flop: 1.Folding 2.Calling 3.Raising
Turn: 1.Checking 2.Folding 3.Raising
River: 1.Folding 2.Raising 3.Calling

I think if you're not going to fold on the river, you have to raise. 

[/ QUOTE ]

I gonna have to say i completely disagree with all 3 streets so please explain.

#7 12-09-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so i would probably call hoping to pick off a missed straight draw from the lag.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the exact reason you should raise.

#8 12-09-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In order
Flop: 1.Folding 2.Calling 3.Raising
Turn: 1.Checking 2.Folding 3.Raising
River: 1.Folding 2.Raising 3.Calling

I think if you're not going to fold on the river, you have to raise. 

[/ QUOTE ]

I gonna have to say i completely disagree with all 3 streets so please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop
As you rightly say, the LAG is representing a K. If you believe him, or that the guy behind has a K, you should fold.
If you don't believe he has a K, there is a very good chance he has overcards, there is only 2, A and Q. If he's donking with them and you're not going to fold him, what are you trying to fold in MP3's hand?
I call if I'm going to continue.

Turn
Taking a second look at it. Bet/folding is a much better option. I may have been clouded by wanting to fold the flop.

River
Again, my judgement may have been slightly skewed by wanting to fold the flop. So folding got the edge.
But taking a second look, raising is probably the best option of the three. You gave the answer yourself:

[ QUOTE ]
hoping to pick off a missed straight draw from the lag.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has donked a missed straight draw, you desparately want to get rid of MP3 who could quite easily fold a better hand faced with the river scare card.

Aces McGee · #9 12-09-2005, 11:06 AM

Hi Crunchy

I think I'd rather bet the turn than call the river.

-McGee

crunchy1 · #10 12-09-2005, 11:17 AM

I'd just like to interject a couple comments...

I'd give you the WSD%/W$SD% - but over 40 hands they're really not worth much. Suffice to say that neither of these guys are folding a better hand than my Jacks at any point. I'm 95% confident that this hand is going to showdown.

I see a number of comments referring to "if I believe he has" or "he's representing". These guys are LOOSE. They are likely playing 2 cards. The LAG could be betting with 2 cards and the fish can be calling with 2 cards.

It's very hard to specifically put either of these guys on a small hand range. We shouldn't be discussing the possibility that they hold one card (i.e. the K or the A) - we should be discussing the weight of the probability of holding one of these cards against the rest of the hands in an assigned range.