$109 Party Hand - Trip Jacks vs. another big stack on river

[Lloyd]

Party $109

The villain had been pretty aggressive. He hadn't shown down anything horrible but was definitely playing the big stack. I had just trippled up when my KK beat his QQ and another's AK.

Blinds 75/150

Villain: t9295
Hero: t6000

All fold to villain in CO-1 who limps for t150. Folded to me in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I complete and BB checks.

Pot: t450
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet t300. BB folds. Villain calls t300.

Pot: t1050
Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet t600. Villain calls t600.

Pot: t2250
River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Range of hands for villain and what's your plan?

If he's a decent player. The only dangerous hand I could put him on would be slow-played trips. My reasoning is as follows:
1. The low str8: surely he wouldn't have called it down?
2. The flush: you've got the Ace, so I would expect him to at least re-raise the turn to find out where he stands.

The problem is that it's going to be hard for him to out you on a hand because there is no pre-flop raise so he might be nervous of his low flush, nervous of his J10 nervous of his poket sixes and is calling you down with marginal hand. The nightmare is trips though, especially if he's put you on the flush. No, in fact, the nightmare is J9 where he's put you on the flush and is coming stright OTT on the river.

You have a tricky decision. I can't see him calling a large bet unless he has you beat with the full house or flush. I would either check or make a small bet that you can afford to have re-raised and try to see what further information you can get. There doesn't seem too much value to raising unless you're sure he's got KJ, QJ etc. Checking may induce a bluff that you can't call but he can't be finding it easy to put you on a hand either and with a pair on the board and three to a flush (and no ace), I would be wary of making a bluff in his position.

What happened? It's a trouble hand - did you escape?

I, possibly wrongly, would have pushed out a larger bet on the turn with tptk and the nut flush draw.

[Exitonly]

i dont get his limp if he'd been pretty aggresive. maybe he has 45? i can't imagine any J that he'd limp w/, maybe he has an overpair he was trrying to trap w/ but the clubs froze him.

i dunno. i guess just lead for 1000 and call a push.

i see some benifites of check-calling too, but you gotta be losing lots of value doing that.

I can't put villain on a range here. His turn call looks a ton like a draw though, but then his flop call makes no sense unless he's decided to stick around with 45. I guess KcJ or QcJ is possible or some PP with a club. He could have a made flush here (or a poorly played set), but I think it's too likely that we're ahead to worry about being kind.

Anyway, our hand's really good and villain's range is unclear (at least to me), so I bet 3/4 pot and don't fold.

Note: The more I think about it, the more I think this line looks like a badly played flopped set. I really don't like this spot much. Maybe check/call is best?

[stokken]

When someone deviates this much from my established impression I thread carefully.
I dont fancy raising it PF to much as the hand is speculative, maybe best- but difficult to play out of position and I dont like investing to much in it. Sometimes however I try to imagine what an interesting flopp would make me do and how much I would invest in it and pop it up abit, if called then I either need to flopp a monster or I`ll go for the cheap route and fold a significant amount of time to resistance-abit weak thight from the blinds perhaps, but has been my nr.1 spot to bust from lately.

On flopp I see my self check raising more often then not. Your bet can be seen in a number of ways-most often I put you on a draw when you bet like this. As villains behaviour is unusual to his true self I want to know how interested he is in this flopp. The check raise leaves us with some more information? If one plans to bet 2/3 of pot now and fire again on turn-one can achieve more with somewhat less invested by c/r. I can see someone playing AA-KK like this. And small pp`s. Suited connectors to maybe, KJ QJ TJ . But I wouldnt trust myself to much with that, him being agressive. I think he would bring it in for a raise if 99-55? Then maybe he is afraid to get reraised to a bid he cant call? As it looks like stealing and his image may well encourage someone to test him, resent beat in mind not to tempting?

The more I look at the hand the more I feel he has ducks and his continuous calling on a scary board is enough to have me slowdown when thinking.If he put me on a draw and called what seems to be my made hand, he must have redraw with potential or made hand, unless retarded. Only contradiction is him not raising the flopp when two suited, but it is no guarantee apart from him playing this set poorly.Or he fears you will push what he believes is your draw? How does he percieve you?

I dont know on this river I hate it when I`m right, but call just to get it in my face. Sometimes you just lay down a winner. There is interest in the pot, but plenty chips to work with. Many times I would go " Hey! I got tripps and shortly after go, Hey I am out! But on a good day I c/f any bet above 1/2 pot. I believe AA KK takes the free showdown? But I would c/r flopp

For what it is worth Stokken

sometimes when i have a good stack and i have been playing rather aggressively, and i pick up a playable but not great hand in mp/late mp, i will limp to mix it up and possibly throw opponents off. this is what villain could be doing here.

so i think his range his pretty wide. something like 55 or 66 is likely. a flush is possible. i think we would have heard from a big J or a set earlier.

a overly-slowplayed KK or AA that froze up once the turn flush came is also a distinct possibility.

given these, i would value bet the river for t1200, and if he raises...well, i would vomit all over the computer and, assuming it still functioned, probably call.

[woodguy]

I have to lead the river, and I'm calling a push.

We are behind 22/33/99 and flushes.

We are ahead of AA/KK/QQ/TT/88/77 KJ/QJ/JT.

Its disconcenrting that he called the turn instead of raising it, but if he doesn't put you on a flush draw, he may think his overpair/midpair is good.

Given that an aggro player limped PF, I lean towards on overpair to the flop, but don't understand why he didn't raise the turn, unless he has a big [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If he hit his set good for him, pay him off, you are too far ahead of too many hands.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

bet and call a raise.

[ QUOTE ]

I dont know on this river I hate it when I`m right, but call just to get it in my face. Sometimes you just lay down a winner. There is interest in the pot, but plenty chips to work with. Many times I would go " Hey! I got tripps and shortly after go, Hey I am out! But on a good day I c/f any bet above 1/2 pot. I believe AA KK takes the free showdown? But I would c/r flopp

[/ QUOTE ]

It's important to realize that, no matter how good at poker you are, your first thought when considering whether or not to go to showdown should be the strength of your hand. The logic of "hey, I've got trips!" is pretty solid.

absolutely do not check this hand on the river, you are only asking villain to push, then you have no clue if he has the goods or not. I put in a bet of say 900 on the river. Villain with lesser hand may pay this off and a better hand may be worried about this being a value bet for a decent full house or nut flush (especially since he can't have the A of clubs).