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#21
12-02-2005, 01:02 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river. 
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#22
12-02-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK. Rob
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#24
12-02-2005, 01:11 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making. [/ QUOTE ] 3 ways for KK, 1 way for AA. Dave is now telling me that my range is too narrow but I was going off of a "too passive" read which, to me, even in hyperlag games would mean no AQ preflop/flop and no JJ flop. So I weighted those, check-calling earns 7.5BB against AA as a chop, and figured how many times she'd have to bet AA (40%) that she has it. 40% x 1 x 7.5 = 3, which is the same as the 3 ways she can have KK and bet them on the river. Either way given the description and that scenario I didn't like a river bet, since it's going to take a lot for a river bet to approach 0EV given the assumptions made. If the assumptions made are wrong, I was going off of the read provided and trying to extrapolate from there. I'm headed to the gym but will post more later if necessary. Rob
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#25
12-02-2005, 01:13 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.
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#26
12-02-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression. [/ QUOTE ] I'll do the math while I'm cycling, but I know that adding AQs still makes it a check-call rather than a bet-fold. AQo might switch it up a bit more. Rob
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#27
12-02-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: AA
I agree with Dave, AA or KK is too narrow. There are a few other hands she could have. It is difficult for me to explain why I feel this way, but the combination of factors, (her position and image, Dave's position and image, the flop action, the turn action, and the board) leads me to believe there are a few worse hands she will call with but never bet (very few, e.g. AQ, AK). There are also a lot of better hands that she will not raise with and she will also probably not raise with AA.
If she is not going to raise AA, then Dave's EV when she has AA is the same whether he bets or checks (Well, technically it is higher when he bets, but lets ignore that). Whens she doesn't have AA then Dave's EV is approximately -$80 when he calls a bet. When he bets there are a few hands she will call with that she won't bet (although very few). If she will raise AA in this spot then my analysis sucks.
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#28
12-02-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about. [/ QUOTE ] Bet/folding the river for one more bet in a huge pot? At a 40/80 game where people will take notice. Any plan that has us putting in all that action and not seeing a showdown is bound to raise some eyebrows. -DeathDonkey
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