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#23
12-02-2005, 01:29 AM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible. [/ QUOTE ] does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing. 
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#24
12-02-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible. [/ QUOTE ] does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing. [/ QUOTE ] are you then folding?
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#25
12-02-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible. [/ QUOTE ] does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing. [/ QUOTE ] are you then folding? [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldn't fold to a 3 bet. I think they probably have the Q, but getting these odds you have to go with your read and hope he doesn't have it.
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#27
12-02-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
CAP the river? LOL.
21/14/1.2 to me is SOMEWHAT TIGHT, VERY AGGRO, LITTLE BIT TRICKY. i don't see how him having QTs or QT (less likely) is completely out of the question. and please, why EVER cap on the river with a set on a 4 straight board? IMO the river action here isn't that cruicial. I like the turn cap, but i guess that's a no brainer... - Kenny
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#28
12-02-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
and please, why EVER cap on the river with a set on a 4 straight board? [/ QUOTE ] Correct Because of... [ QUOTE ] I like the turn cap, but i guess that's a no brainer... [/ QUOTE ] ... [ QUOTE ] IMO the river action here isn't that cruicial. [/ QUOTE ] is the only interesting part. On a side note by reading the stats again of 21/14/1.2 for me to believe that he has a Q here...I think he would have to have an aggression of at least 1.8-2.0. I can actually see why/how he played the Js like he did. I thinks Js are right after the AK or KK guess. QT or AQ is below even say TT. I just really don't see him having any Q hand he plays like this and I think his stats show that. 14/1.2 just isn't gonna 3 bet here out of position IMO without a higher aggression or higher PFR number. All just thoughts.
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#29
12-03-2005, 05:17 AM
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Re: AA raise the river?
Put yourself in your opponent's shoes. It looks to him that you do not have a queen. You will usually call with either a better hand or worse hand if he holds a set. You will not bet if he checks with a worse hand. His bet is probably with a set given the betting and you can beat his set. I don't think he'd reraise preflop with QT, but he will with a big PP. Given the turn check-raise he must have a set or QT. I think a river raise, although risky, is profitable. If 3 bet I'd call on the river. I feel the critical point of this hand is the turn check-raise. Given the fact that he reraised preflop he must have a set. You can beat his set and therefore should raise on the river.
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