AA raise the river?

[RED_RAIN]

I agree with everything except QT.

If you disagree with QT, then how can you agree to not cap this river?



Tex

[RED_RAIN]

The off chance he is going nutty with AQ or QQ. I think QQ is just about unlikely as QT though.

[chaosuk]

I might raise by through impulse, but upon inspection this is a call to for me. You've got to be better than 67% here to raise - you're about as likely to fold to his 3 bet as he is to your raise - not very.

For my money Q-10s is very much in play:

His stats - 21/14/1.5 , net him 3-betting the cutoff seal with Q-10s, though a higher AF would make it nor likely (sample size?)

Notes: 'c-r raises on a bluff' again fairly consistent behaviour with this pre-flop raise.

Flop play - not quite so sure, very consistent with say J-9-x; but he may have been setting himself up for the check-bluff raise on the turn (as appears to be his way)

[newhizzle]

well i thought about it for a minute and ended up calling, even though after his flop and turn action i was pretty much convinced he had a lower set, anyway, he had JJ and i think that raising and calling a 3-bet would have been the correct play here

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I've been out of town for most of November. I agree with what you have said, but I think QTs is a possibility here. 21/14 seems agressive enough to occasionally 3-bet QTs... I would do it - albeit very rarely. You are also right about the donk bet being strange by a good player on that flop.

I just think Red Rain was being a bit too dismissive. But, in hind sight it does seem less likely than even I originally thought. My post was a knee jerk rejaction to something that I thought was being too dismissive... serves me right for not playing a hand in three weeks or so.

I would not have found a raise on the river here.

If he holds a Queen, we loose 2 extra BB. If he does not hold a Queen, we win 1 extra BB. So, does he hold in Queen in less than 33% of the cases? I doubt it as there are many more QT combinations out there than KK combinations (though his play would fit KK better)

So I'd just call.

If someone has the guts to raise and fold to a 3-bet here with something like 99% certainty then this of course would be the best option.

[RED_RAIN]

I guess maybe I am too passive in the BB to even think about this or bad at reading the stats, I would think someone would have to be closer to 16-18% PFR to 3 bet this and aggression of say 2-2.5.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess maybe I am too passive in the BB to even think about this or bad at reading the stats, I would think someone would have to be closer to 16-18% PFR to 3 bet this and aggression of say 2-2.5.

[/ QUOTE ]No Way. 21/14 is definately on the aggro side of TAG for full games. You have to remember that the open came from the cutoff, QT may well have a hot and cold equity edge against the OP's range preflop.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be planning on donking twice or going for a screwplay. Especially given the average mid/hi 2+2ers penchant for auto-capping medium pairs in this spot preflop.