Raise the river? Nut straight w/ 3-flush on the board in huge pot

beset7 · #1 12-01-2005, 03:53 AM

Only one that worries me is SB who is a 27/5/1. The rest are donkus maximus. Table is off the hook. Comments on flop raise and river raise? I raised the river because I didn't think SB would go nuts on the turn with just the FD. MP2 is retard 60/2/2 or so and his range is super wide. A set or two-pair are just as likely as a FD. But he did limp/cap preflop so... Terrible river raise?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (19 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (24.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises

Edit: Note, also, the action isn't clear, but BB gets all-in on the flop and everything after that is a sidepot.

jaxUp · #2 12-01-2005, 04:02 AM

flop is a close decision. We'd like people to call so that our equity is good, but I actually think we gain more here when we fold a Q than when we get a lot of callers. I play it the same, although river is kinda close. With MP padding I don't mind it.

Shillx · #3 12-01-2005, 04:09 AM

Meh. Unless we are getting semi-freerolled, I don't feel like we are losing (or chopping) this pot. We need to raise for days on this river IMO.

Brad

jaxUp · #4 12-01-2005, 04:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. Unless we are getting semi-freerolled, I don't feel like we are losing (or chopping) this pot. We need to raise for days on this river IMO.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, yeah with SB capping the turn I think we see a flush almost never.

What do you think of flop raise shill?

Shillx · #5 12-01-2005, 04:30 AM

Dude you can call me Brad...

At least if you come to Vegas next time. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The pot looks to be too big to fold out anything that raising would fold out that we want to fold out. If that last line wasn't complex enough, I feel bad for the dude that has to figure out if calling is better then raising on the flop. I dunno dude but I'm guessing that it is close. When shove comes to push, I tend to push though I love to shove as well. I say that only folding can be totally wrong here.

Brad

milesdyson · #6 12-01-2005, 04:41 AM

i like the flop raise. we have a double gutter and a backdoor flush draw. if SB has AT/QT, we definitely want to try to get him out. if he has another AQ, maybe he'll miss that he's double gutted (roflll). maybe he'll fold AK because he's worried of a raising war. if anyone else has a raggy Q, we want them out. this pot is bigger than my peehole, and i want to win it.

jaxUp · #7 12-01-2005, 04:44 AM

Ok, that was what I figured for the line.

As for:

[ QUOTE ]
Dude you can call me Brad...

[/ QUOTE ]

I always feel kinda n00bish when I talk to you. I'll work on it. Also, it's kinda weird as my name is also Brad.

and for:

[ QUOTE ]
At least if you come to Vegas next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

There will be a 2+2 Vegas trip in my future for sure, but I'm barely 20.

milesdyson · #8 12-01-2005, 04:47 AM

the other brad is pretty young, too. i believe he's 22. i am also 22. once i get my roll up to play ~5/10+ i won't feel like such a girly man, and i'll be able to meet up with some bros and drink/poker it up.

beset7 · #9 12-01-2005, 11:56 AM

I wonder what percentage of the time we would need to bet getting freerolled to make just calling the river correct... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

jaxUp · #10 12-01-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what percentage of the time we would need to bet getting freerolled to make just calling the river correct...

[/ QUOTE ]

let's say we win an average of 2BB from SB and 2BB from MP about 60% of the time we win, and chop 2BB with SB 40% of the time when we win. so we win an average of 2.8 BB when we win. When we lose, we will lose 3BB (assuming we just call). So, we have to not be up against a flush a little more than half the time for this river raise to be good. I think we are.