Post #1000: A hand and a hand

[Jake (The Snake)]

For my first stupid milestone post, I want to get three things out of the way:

First, I just want to quickly extend a hand of thanks to the entire 2+2 community. I owe so much to everybody that has helped me over the past 18 months. Thank you.

Second, if anybody ever wants to talk about hands or theory or anything, my AIM screenname is TheSnake4986. I know a lot of 2+2ers do this and I feel left out. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

The third thing is just some advice- READ THE ARCHIVES. I spent about 3 hours just today reading Ulysses posts from the HUSH archive. It's absolute gold. Do yourself a favor and read the archived posts from Ed Miller, Clarkmeister, Nate, etc. I know the search function sucks, but it's really worth it.

Now, onto a poker hand that I think may be a good exercise:

Reads: UTG is passive and rockish. He only plays 88+ or two cards higher than ten and is unaware of position. UTG+1 and UTG+2 are just finished reading SSHE by Ed Miller. They play the early position tight recommendations from the book exactly. Everyone else is loose/passive and terrible. Assume no rake.

Hero is Button with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop:

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop (8SB): Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to UTG who bets. UTG+1 folds. UTG+2 folds. MP3 calls. CO calls. Hero calls. SB folds. BB folds.

Turn (6BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets. MP3 calls. Folded to Hero who...

Call or Fold and about how big of a mistake is the wrong choice?

[Lmn55d]

You're getting 8:1 on a 10.75:1 shot, meaning you need to make 3 BB on the river. Since UTG is passive and has taken the lead in the hand, you can't really expect anyone to go off on the river for multiple bets. MP3 is loose terrible so he could have a lot.

So, do you get 3BB on average on the river? I would say no. I think a lot of times MP3 will be on a weak draw (as in Ax/Kx) and will fold and you will get 2 from UTG. UTG is passive and rockish so he might fold to your river raise, especially when it's an innocuous 3 and there were no real obvious draws on the flop. I fold.

[thejameser]

hey jake, congrats on the milestone. and on the archives, yes they are great. nuggets of gold everywhere. and some of the names are huge in the poker world. on your hand, you are getting 8-1 on a clean 4 outer. if one of them will call your raise then given your relative position i think you have the implied odds to call because you are putting in one bet(and no more unless you hit your straight) with four outs to win ~11-13 BB.

[Nick C]

Since we know the none of the EP players played a hand with a 3 in it, we practically have the immediate odds to call. So I guess we might as well.

I'm hoping MP3 has A4.

[damaniac]

I guess you mean the 2 SSHE readers wouldn't, which is right unless they held 33 specifically. Oh and the bettor, so that leaves us with a 9:1 shot right? We're splitting pretty much never and we hold the nuts if it hits, so I think this is a call. Good thinking. I need to do that more.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 8:1 on a 10.75:1 shot, meaning you need to make 3 BB on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, when you have 4 outs on the turn, there are 46 unknown cards. So it's actually 42:4 or 10.5 to 1.

But this isn't normal.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Yeah, Nick got this one.

Because of our reads, we know with 100% certainty that all three EP players were not dealt a 3. This allows us to reduce the number of unknown cards from 46 to 40, and changes the odds from 10.5:1 to 9:1.

With 8:1 on the turn, we now only need to make up 1 BB on the river to break even, which will be easy. Without taking into consideration the EP ranges, this is probably a fold. Now it's an easy call with an EV of about (.15)BB.

[Redd]

This hand demonstrates a really cool concept, Jake. I wonder how often the concept is applicable to a real-life SS game, though?

[Jake (The Snake)]

I'm not sure, probably not often. It's likely used much more often in games where you can see some of your opponents' cards.

I think perhaps it could be helpful in really close decisions though. You will very rarely have good enough reads to know that somebody doesn't have a specific card, but I think it might be occasionally useful to think like this:

-I am drawing to a low card, and a bunch of players called preflop, so I am slightly more likely to hit.
-I am drawing to a high card, and a bunch of players called preflop, so I am slightly less likely to hit.
-I am drawing to a low card, and a bunch of players folded preflop, so I am slightly less likely to hit.
-I am drawing to a high card, and a bunch of players folded preflop, so I am slightly more likely to hit.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
The third thing is just some advice- READ THE ARCHIVES. I spent about 3 hours just today reading Ulysses posts from the HUSH archive. It's absolute gold. Do yourself a favor and read the archived posts from Ed Miller, Clarkmeister, Nate, etc. I know the search function sucks, but it's really worth it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously though, how DOES that work? It only goes back like 2 months it seems like. I don't get it.