My first hand in forever - JJ

[ArturiusX]

The only info we should rely on is our hand reading skills before the hand even plays out.

If hes loose and agro, showdown this all day. If hes decent, we try and take value. If the showdown becomes to expensive, we fold.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Yeah, I think one of my problems is giving my opponents too much credit or falling into the trap of thinking how I would play if I were villain.

Anyway, I gave the hand some more thought from a mathematical perspective. I probably screwed it up, so watch for errors and bad logic...

I'll assume villain bets the flop 100% of the time and calls a c/r 100% of the time for simplicity. I estimate I have about 55% equity in the hand and am ahead on the flop about 62% of the time. If anybody thinks these numbers are unreasonable, let me know.

I'm just going to examine the EV of flop bets and not how the two plays might relate to turn/river action. Obviously what happens on future streets does matter, but my previous post leads me to the conclusion that, if anything, a c/r will be harder to play on the turn and river.

Check/call: (.55)-(.45)= +.10

Check/raise:

(.55)(2)= +1.10
(.25)(-2)= -.5
(.20)(-3) for AA and KK 3-betting = -.6

= 0

So I guess it's pretty close (unless I screwed up) and comes down to the assumptions and how the turn and river are affected.

You're just nitpicking reads on opponents. Of course some opponents can thwart this line by bluff-raising, but presumably he can handle that.

Check-calling is profitable for WA/WB situations, but here you're either way behind or slightly ahead. Since he might have 6 outs to beat you, I think flop aggression is important here.

[ArturiusX]

Yeah sorry, I kinda of came off the wrong way. My lines more about value extraction, I think information extraction is a secondary notion.

That was my only point, sorry if I sounded like I was a nit :P

OK, gotcha. Yeah, I didn't mean that my motivation for check-raising was to get the most info, just to get the same info while losing less (since I think we are probably behind here).

[me454555]

check call the flop check raise a non threatening turn card. Reads on this opponent would be extremely helpful

[climber]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has a pocket pair lower than us, he's probably folding either the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

One point:

1. That's not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

so true...and I love them for it

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raise the flop, call down if 3-bet, keep betting until agro is shown.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MarkL444]

without a read i want to see a showdown.