How do I measure the cost of mistakes ?

[mark76g]

Hi,
I come from a blackjack card counting background orinially but I've played poker on and off casually for a couple of years with mixed results. There are a couple of concepts that have always eluded me and I'm interested to hear what people think.

The first thing is how do I calculate the cost of a mistake and how do I define a mistake ?

A bad beat where I go all in heads up with AA and the other players junk wins on the river is clearly a bad beat for example.
But what if I play AK and make AAs on the flop and the guy played junk and got bottom two pair and gos all in.
Lets say hes loose so I decide on average its worth the risk
but then discover I was wrong. I lose my whole stack.

Was that a mistake ? and if so do I sit there saying well I normally make $50 per hour so that just cancelled out 6 hours work ?

Or do I use the logic ... well 3 out of 4 times that guy would have allined with a smaller hand than AA so my call was ok and I should just play on.

What about nasty traps where I flop a pretty good hand like say top trips but I'm up against somebody elses house.
I don't know the other player well enough to know any info other than hes pleased and believes he had a good hand.
i bet out aggressivly to drive out draws he raises I call things work out badly for me.

Should I withdraw from the game and consider myself unworthy. Is that a mistake that a pro wouldn't make ?

In no limit the result of a days play often hinges on a single event. Lets say I start with $200 in front of me play for 4 hours. In senario 1 lets say I play a great game and now I've got $700 and in senario 2 its the same game with the same hands but I don't play very well and there is now onlt $150 left in front of me but at the 4 hour mark a nasty trap hand comes up mabey I get dealt KK and somebody else with a big stack gets AA and goes all in. Either way im all in so my four hours worth of previous play becomes irrelevant unless I bad beat the other guy with a king of course.

With poker I find it hard to really define whats going on. I can look at my records and say I'm making $X per hour for 100 hours play but alot of the results are heavily derived from a hand full of events so am I really ?

When I really do get out played by other players I need to be able to recognise it and change games but it often hard to say.

So how can I tell for sure if I've just made a mistake and got outplayed and is there a good way of estimating how much my mistake just cost me in the long run ?

Mark.

[Allinlife]

post qusetionable hands on 2+2

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
So how can I tell for sure if I've just made a mistake and got outplayed and is there a good way of estimating how much my mistake just cost me in the long run ?

[/ QUOTE ]

1- Learn how to determine if you got your money in with the best of it.

2- Post hands in the small stakes forum.

[mark76g]

Thats not going to answer my question. This is part of the reason poker annoys me.
Is hard to get discussion on highlevel concepts. People will ask how many people in the game was there a tight aggressive dawarf with a wooden left in mid position. Oh well I would suggest check raising but if he was if late position well thats a whole different story.

I understand pot odds I also understand that every situation is unique in some way. But im not after a detailed disscussion about a few particular hands.

The two forms of poker I have always made money from of the last couple years are live NL holdem and holdem tournaments, Internet+Live.

What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

Sometimes the pot is big and calling is a nobrainer. Othertimes I might have enough outs to justify calling.

The frustrating situations are where I have to decide right then and there if im believe Im ahead. If I think yes but the answer is no then its a huge screw up.
SO did I just make a bad play by calling or do I apply the logic .. I was wrong this time but based on this players play history I usually would have been right in this situation
so my call was ok even though went I called I had no pot odds and was a massive underdog.

Thats the concept im trying to get discussion on.

[Mens Rea]

If poker were a game of absolutes, then the fish would disappear and the math geeks would rule the game. Not good.

[SunOfBeach]

[ QUOTE ]
how do I define a mistake ?

[/ QUOTE ]

read about sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats not going to answer my question. This is part of the reason poker annoys me.
Is hard to get discussion on highlevel concepts. People will ask how many people in the game was there a tight aggressive dawarf with a wooden left in mid position. Oh well I would suggest check raising but if he was if late position well thats a whole different story.

I understand pot odds I also understand that every situation is unique in some way. But im not after a detailed disscussion about a few particular hands.

The two forms of poker I have always made money from of the last couple years are live NL holdem and holdem tournaments, Internet+Live.

What annoys me is there are few absoultes in poker. If I have to make a big call it often comes down to a judgement call about the other players personality and playing style.

Sometimes the pot is big and calling is a nobrainer. Othertimes I might have enough outs to justify calling.

The frustrating situations are where I have to decide right then and there if im believe Im ahead. If I think yes but the answer is no then its a huge screw up.
SO did I just make a bad play by calling or do I apply the logic .. I was wrong this time but based on this players play history I usually would have been right in this situation
so my call was ok even though went I called I had no pot odds and was a massive underdog.

Thats the concept im trying to get discussion on.

[/ QUOTE ]

feel free to completly disregard my opinion, but:

Poker doesn't look like the game for you. What annoys you about poker is what the rest of us love

I think the most important thing to understand is poker is a game with alot of complex variables.

Blackjack is a game which is ruled by math.

There are no absolutes in poker and because of that you will be stuck with difficult decisions where the varialbes are always changing.

Sorry for not giving you the answer you were looking for.

[Mens Rea]

One more thing - does anyone else find it amazing that there are so many people who get pissed off at variance and short-term unpredictability, which is responsible, over the long term, for a major part of why poker is profitable for nearly anyone not of a world class caliber?

I followed you until the last comment, what does world class player have to do with your statement? I would include them as well.