Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?

[EverettKings]

Quick history. Stars 55. The last two orbits it folded to me in the SB (this hand's villain was BB), both times i opened for 3x. The first time villain called and i checkraised all in on an A high flop and took it down. The second time he folded preflop. I'd been fairly quiet, but hand immediately before this one I reraised allin over a 3x open and took it down, showing AK.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB (t6325)
BB (t3315)
UTG (t3085)
UTG+1 (t1870)
MP1 (t4805)
MP2 (t2080)
MP3 (t1320)
Hero (t2925)
Button (t2665)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, Button calls t400, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1025) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button (after about two seconds) raises to t1200</font>

I have about 2k at this point.

If I lead for any more on the flop, I'm pretty much making him play just about perfectly, as he wont fold any better hands but will fold most worse hands. Though that's not THAT bad at this point when the pot is important and my hand is vulnerable.

If I check and he bets I have no idea where I am and don't really have enough to call and still get away if need be. I mean if he bets 700 I guess I go all in? Maybe thats a valid line, just decide I think I'm best and see what chips I can get from worse hands. If he checks behind it's no biggie either.

My 450 lead was intended for him to have no idea where I was at. The plan was to evaluate his timing and action and go from there. After my 450 lead I wouldn't expect him to immediately know what he wanted to do unless he had a real hand (in other words, if he had something marginal or air he'd think about it more), so the timing told me that I was probably beat.



The key here is that I did not want to be committed to blowing more chips after my preflop raise was called. The 'automatic' move is to just c-bet any flop but that's an awful idea here with these stacks out of position, IMO.


All comments welcome.


Everett

I think your best option is to just call hoping to pick up some more outs on the turn (backdoor straight, flush draw, two pair, trips). If you don't improve on the turn, check/fold.

[Jurollo]

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I think your best option is to just call hoping to pick up some more outs on the turn (backdoor straight, flush draw, two pair, trips). If you don't improve on the turn, check/fold.

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So your contention is the hero should call for t750 more and put a total of t1600 or 55% of his stack and then fold if he doesn't improve? I don't like this line.

Everett,
I dont mind your raise preflop, you are in position and have a hand that could make something big on the flop. Once the button calls though I am worried, he is obviously the one player left to act I dont want to call because you are out of position now. Ok so the flop comes and you hit middle pair, uh oh...I hate position problems. His range likely includes hands that kill you here with a J. I agree with the continuation bet on the flop but once he raises I am probably getting out of the hand now and kicking myself for not checking the flop. The only argument that can be made for checking the flop is that you could likely see a turn and attempt to pick up some more outs for a fairly cheap price.
~Justin

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I think your best option is to just call hoping to pick up some more outs on the turn (backdoor straight, flush draw, two pair, trips). If you don't improve on the turn, check/fold.

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So your contention is the hero should call for t750 more and put a total of t1600 or 55% of his stack and then fold if he doesn't improve? I don't like this line.

Everett,
I dont mind your raise preflop, you are in position and have a hand that could make something big on the flop. Once the button calls though I am worried, he is obviously the one player left to act I dont want to call because you are out of position now. Ok so the flop comes and you hit middle pair, uh oh...I hate position problems. His range likely includes hands that kill you here with a J. I agree with the continuation bet on the flop but once he raises I am probably getting out of the hand now and kicking myself for not checking the flop. The only argument that can be made for checking the flop is that you could likely see a turn and attempt to pick up some more outs for a fairly cheap price.
~Justin

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He has T950 in already. T750 to call a pot of T2675 (~3.5-to-1). He may have the best hand now (probably not), but he could pick up outs on the turn or make two pair or trips. If villain had JJ or 99 he's probably reraising PF, especially if villain views him as loose b/c of the moves he's made. If he folds now he has T1,975 left, if he calls he has T1,225, so it's up to him if he thinks he can comeback shortstacked or try to pick up a big pot now with pretty good odds.

[Artsemis]

Two players to the flop with stacks how they are I wouldn't like checking the flop. I like the flop bet and then fold on the raise.

[PFrese]

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Two players to the flop with stacks how they are I wouldn't like checking the flop. I like the flop bet and then fold on the raise.

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I agree. You tried to steal, got called, caught middle pair, bet, got raised, fold now. No shame in folding. You still have plenty of chips left.

[EverettKings]

It was pretty obvious from the context of my post that I folded, but the real question is what line to take on the flop, and what line to take on other flops that you A) completely miss or B) hit pretty hard or C) kind of hit.

Here's my thoughts but I'd like to see other opinions.

---Preflop
With his smooth call I'm probably in trouble. He might have a hand like AJo or 77 but he's probably not looking for ways to get away on the flop, making it hard to coax him out with these stacks. Basically, he's not as ready as I'd like him to be to give up on this pot, so I have to tread carefully.

---Line 1
If the flop comes total rags, I'd probably check planning to c/r all in if he bets something fishy, or fold if I believe him. I feel like if I lead on a flop that obviously didn't help either of us, he'd get brave with all kinds of hands, overpairs or AJ or anything. Any bet that I make sets up the perfect situation for him to come over the top. But if I check I can rip the pot off AQ type hands or get a free card or something. Lots of possibilities, and no shame getting away if he makes a believable bet.

---Line 2
If the flop comes pretty big, say KJ8 or AJ5 or something, I make a solid lead (t700 ish) and fold to further agression. Theres enough hands out there for him to give me credit for that he'll probably toss hands that missed, but will jam and give me an easy fold when he's got something.

---Line 3
If the flop comes something pretty like T62, I make a slightly weak flop lead, say t600, planning to call a push. Like the raggedy flop, small pairs will certainly stick around, and sometimes he'll have an overcard hand but not believe me and see a perfect spot to push over the top. A normal t7-800 lead is fine but I like taking a little off the top here to make him a little curious. Minor detail though.

---Line 4
And finally is a flop like J94 two clubs (look familiar?). All of my other lines had been based on bluffing or playing for value, but here it's a little fuzzy. I *think* I'm playing for value but it gets pretty muddy sorting out when I'm ahead and behind. I liked the idea of a t450 bet to throw him off, since he can't just jam over the top. I expected a flat call there from a ton of hands that he could have, and I'd go from the turn. But when the 450 didn't shake him at all and he happily comes over the top for t1200, I'm grimacing as I toss it in the muck.


I love hands like this where check/fold and check/push and bet/fold and bet/call are all very valid lines. It's a total mess to sort out, but if you can do it there's a lot of hidden value to be found buried in the muck.

All comments/ideas welcome.

Everett

[The Student]

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My 450 lead was intended for him to have no idea where I was at. The plan was to evaluate his timing and action and go from there. After my 450 lead I wouldn't expect him to immediately know what he wanted to do unless he had a real hand (in other words, if he had something marginal or air he'd think about it more), so the timing told me that I was probably beat.


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FWIW, I am not so sure I like your logic right here. At a $20+2 or lower buy-in, I agree with your assessment. But I think at a $50+5 and higher buy-in, a number of your opponents will be able to make moves such as post-flop re-steals on an opponent that they see as playing a little wild. He may have decided pre-flop that he wants to play a pot with you HU with position - and so his big raise on the flop might be a muscle move with air, medium PP, or overcards that was pre-meditated. Just pointing out that I wouldn't automatically assume that his timing is indicating a strong hand here.

ts-

[EverettKings]

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My 450 lead was intended for him to have no idea where I was at. The plan was to evaluate his timing and action and go from there. After my 450 lead I wouldn't expect him to immediately know what he wanted to do unless he had a real hand (in other words, if he had something marginal or air he'd think about it more), so the timing told me that I was probably beat.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I am not so sure I like your logic right here. At a $20+2 or lower buy-in, I agree with your assessment. But I think at a $50+5 and higher buy-in, a number of your opponents will be able to make moves such as post-flop re-steals on an opponent that they see as playing a little wild. He may have decided pre-flop that he wants to play a pot with you HU with position - and so his big raise on the flop might be a muscle move with air, medium PP, or overcards that was pre-meditated. Just pointing out that I wouldn't automatically assume that his timing is indicating a strong hand here.

ts-

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Well, when the flop comes J94 there isn't a good way to get information out of him. This is a read that I was planning to use and go with, and you're right that it could be off. If you can think of a better way to sort things out I'd love to hear it.

And I wouldnt consider a 55 a "high" buyin so there wont be many strong advanced plays at the table. People are still fairly predictable just with a better general understanding of the game and reading bets.

Everett

[ZootMurph]

Two things make this hand so difficult for me: the history between you and villain and the coordinated board. He could literally have any two cards.

I think check/fold is the worst option. But also the smallish bet on the flop just smells like weakness, and I don't think is a much better option, especially if every other hand you've been in you've bet strongly. The sudden small bet from a TAG on a coordinated flop is a definite sign of weakness. I wouldn't believe a TAG was trying to trap on a coordinated board. If you had AJ or something like that, you'd be giving odds for straight and flush draws. So my read on you would be that you are hoping to take it down with a whiff or a weak draw.

If I were in Villain's position, I would read it as weak and make a raise, no matter what my holding. So, to me, the small bet is asking for a raise, and the raise can mean anything.

So, all that considered, I'd make a bet of no less than 800 on the flop. I think headsup, with a call from a guy you've been pushing around a bit doesn't mean much, and your second pair is good most of the time.