5/10 NL- Gamble, Gamble

[AdamBragar]

5/10 NL 9 handed Online

I've been at the table for about 20 minutes or so and while I've been here the villain has gone through about 2.2k (max buy in 1k). He's not a maniac or anything but he overvalues his big hands and has been stacked twice when he's had TPTK against a set. He also sees way to many flops, but he does not raise lightly, I'd say only AQ, AK and JJ-AA.

My image is probably that I suck at poker, which is pretty accurate. I've seen a ton of flops so far, but not much success. I think it's been clear I've been betting my draws, but who knows. Also, on this site, my default assumption is that the opponent is horrific and not paying any attention (way worse than Party).

Anyway,

one limper to me, I limp with 45spades, he (~800) raises to 30, blinds fold, limper calls, I call.

Pot: 100ish
Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

checked to villain who bets 80
folded to me I call

Turn: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot: 260

I strongly considered pushing here, but I checked, he bet 250.

Now I'm pretty confident he's got an overpair and I'm slightly behind against an overpair. But there's no way I want to fold. I think if I push, I give him at least an 80 percent chance of calling, probably more. However, if I call and an 8 or a 3 comes, I probably can't extract too much value (but I could bluff if a 9 came). Who knows if I can get anymore money with a spade. another 5 comes and I'm getting paid off. Do I just call? Raise?

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not a maniac or anything but he overvalues his big hands and has been stacked twice when he's had TPTK against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if I call and an 8 or a 3 comes, I probably can't extract too much value (but I could bluff if a 9 came).

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


Default is to cr all in, but if you are against a calling station, you call and bet on riv when you hit, any spade, straight, 5, 4 etc...

[flawless_victory]

yawn.
call.

[AdamBragar]

Just a quick note, that the two times he's been stacked, the boards have been very non-scary. I have no information on if he freezes up to scare cards.