HOLDEM or FOLDEM

Ouch, this is a real toughie. I think you are ahead more often than not, I'd rather call than be knocked down to roughly 200K with those blinds and antes. Sure, you'd still be in the game, but you are probably ahead of superaggro's range right now, and winning this pot will make your chip count almost 800K.

Fold, 200K, Call and win, 800K, call and lose, 6th place...

I'm going for first, I call here.

Sorry, I have to comment on 1 decision. The min raise on the flop I don't like. Push here and put him to a decision. There is a good amount in the pot and I would be happy to pick it up here without a showdown. Also you want to put your opponent to a decision for all his chips. Don't give them the chance to put you to a decision. So push to his bet on the flop.

You said 5th and 6th are both very short so it sounds like he can still fold and have a chance to improve. I think it would be tough to call your push on the flop without a pretty decent holding and you might fold off a better hand that will reraise your min raise.

I think your min reraise committs you(which is why I say push). So my final decision is HOLDEM. Also I think you are a favorite here but not by a huge amount.

[Exitonly]

holy jesus this is going to take forever.

i just finished getting %'s to finish 1st and 2nd.

so.. uh yea i might abandon this if it gets too crazy.

edit: figuring out 3rd place is where it starts to get crazy. So... yea, i give up.

hold'em!

[Lloyd]

You're guaranteed $1200. The total prize pool remaining is $19,700. Let's say you're 50/50 versus his range although I think you might be even a little ahead.

If you fold, you're left with 214,000 out of 2,500,000. So you've got 8.56% of the chips for a $EV of $1,686.

If you call. You'll lose 50% of the time and have a $EV of $0. The other 50% you'll win and have 814,000 chips. That's 32.5% of the total for a $EV of $6,414. So the $EV of calling is $3,207 clearly ahead of that of folding.

In this case, it was such a no brainer because of the pot odds that I knew it would be cEV and $EV.

[ajizzle]

Fold em. His re-raise lays you about 3 - 1, and i dont think this is enough, given you are left with 10BB is you fold, and moving up another pay spot or two is pretty good money at the final table.

Some more info would be needed to change the decision though, like what chip position does 200k put you at? How many players left at the FT? Is the caliber of play such that you will be severely punished for having a smaller stack?

Interesting to see what other people have said so far.

[Exitonly]

not tryring to be nitpicky, but isn't cEV, chip EV? i've been under the impression that +cEV means that you profit in chips, and that +EV means you're worth more.

either way, you showed what i was trying to show.

[ClaytonN]

$3,200 ahead, yes, but I don't put it at 50/50 versus his range. I think we're 35/65. It's not a no-brainer here.

We're only given so much time on the spot to put villain on a range. Yes, he's super aggressive, and he just called a really small raise out of the SB. He probably figures he can outplay you, and rightly so if villain is the kind of player who minraises preflop and minraises on the flop.

Villain's range is huge until the last raise. I'd think less in terms of math and more in terms of what villain's motives are here. Is he making the raise for value, or is it because he thinks he can blow hero out of the pot? How active has hero been, how solid? Has hero been the aggressor or patiently waiting? These are all things to seriously consider before you automatically think "Okay, he's super aggro, give me a range *number crunch crunch*".

[Lloyd]

Whoops sorry. Yes, I meant $EV.

[Lloyd]

Put him on a range of hands.

[Lloyd]

And with a little algebra you can see that it's break even at 26/74. So at 35/65 it' still +$EV.