HOLDEM or FOLDEM

[Lloyd]

I think I'd call. I'm trying to come up with a range of hands where you shouldn't. If we put him on an overpair (with some decreased chance of having some of them because he would have raised pre-flop or would just call the raise on the flop to trap), take away sets where he would probably trap, include something like 55 that could be the best hand with a draw, and some hands of overcards semi-bluffing - you're at least 50/50 here. So with the overlay I think it's +EV to call.

I shouldn't have eaten those uh, four pizzas. *runs off to the fridge*

HOLDEM, but I'm a donkey. I bet he flips over something like AA, KK, AQ-9, A2-A6, 76, 87, 77-22 or even KQ. I don't think he calls preflop with QQ-88 or AK, but I have no read (obviously).

[MLG]

oh, and in case you think its relevant. pay-outs aer roughly:

1. 8k
2. 5.5k
3. 3.5k
4. 2.5k
5. 1.7k
6. 1.2k

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the pot odds are pretty irrelevant here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot odds are never irrelevant. Yes cEV is applicable here. But pot odds factor into deciding if something is +cEV because obviously if you're winning a bunch of chips it's more +cEV then if you're winning just a few.

[scott8]

I think you already knew what you were going to do when you mini-raised on the flop.

[zambonidrivr]

need to re-raaise more in this spot.

[MLG]

pot odds, are always relevant, but we have a chipev $ev problem here i think.

[Exitonly]

I can't imagine you have worse than 50% equity vs his range.
so if you call
50% of the time you'll have an M of 22. $EV = X
50% of the time you'll be gone. $EV = 0
for a combined value of M of 11. of $EV =X/2.

if you fold
100% of the time you'll have an M of 5.5. $EV = Y.

--
so is (X/2)>Y ?

i'm going to make up an excel sheet now to figure out ICM for 6 payouts.. then i shouuld be able to estimate what X, and Y are.


i'll post the results.

[Lloyd]

Total chips in play?

[MLG]

roughly 2.5 mil.