Stars $500k hand w/TP against another big stack

[Lloyd]

Tough decision here:

Approaching the bubble of the PokerStars $215 $500k Guaranteed. About 350 left and 324 pay. I've been a little aggressive but not overly so. I was in a pot with the villain here when he raised UTG, got two limpers, and I pushed in the BB. Other than that we haven't clashed but he's been very aggressive pre-flop.

Hero: t37554 (top 50 or so)
Villain: t29608

Blinds 800/1600/75

I open in MP w/ATo for t4000. Villain calls me on the button. Everyone else is out. Villain's call was a little surprising as he has raised about 25% of the time pre-flop.

Flop 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pot: t11,075

I bet t7000. Villain pushes remaining t25533.

Pot: t43,607

It's costing me t18533 to call so I'm getting 2.3 to 1 odds.

Do I make the call?

[Exitonly]

i think i call here, i can't imagine a range you're not <2:1 vs.

I'd call and wouldn't be surprised to see him have AJ or AQ. AK is not, as I think he would have re-raised. He could have a flush draw but I think that is less likely.

[Sykes]

How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Tc?

He needs to make this move with a Flush draw/weak ace a decent amount of times before this call becomes profitable for you.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Yc?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you're playing in a Stars tourney and the blinds are 800/1600. We were both well above average at the time and the 2 largest stacks on our table.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Yc?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you're playing in a Stars tourney and the blinds are 800/1600. We were both well above average at the time and the 2 largest stacks on our table.

[/ QUOTE ]

True enough. But isn't this more of a reason to fold and then just pick on the little guys?

Also, what are his pre-flop standards? I figure he'd re-raise with AK/JJ+.

Knowing this, would he make this move with 88-TT? What about with a set of 7s? Flush draw?

Whether this call is profitable or not is depending on how loose he is with the all-in. If he's tight and only does this with the goods, folding is best. But if he has done a move like this with a flush draw/mid-pair before, calling now becomes correct.


Against the hand range of

ATo-AQs/KJcc-KQcc

You have a little more than 30% equity in the hand.

[HoldingFolding]

I fold here. I don't see him playing a flush draw or a set like this; not sure what you could have beat here, I reckon you'd see AQ, possibly AJ if he was LAGgsih and AK if he thought he could trap you with your aggression.

[Yuv]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here. I don't see him playing a flush draw or a set like this; not sure what you could have beat here, I reckon you'd see AQ, possibly AJ if he was LAGgsih and AK if he thought he could trap you with your aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would he play KcQc? I agree that he should fold, cause you will see AJ-AK there about 66% of the time and his stack is big enough to suffer the lose.

[sublyme]

I call; you played AT obviously so you could hit that Ace. You've hit your ace and now you're considering folding to an all-in? I make the call and hope I'm against a weaker ace or someone with a flush draw that was trying to bully me out of the pot near the bubble. Besides, the pot odds are giving you enough IMHO to make this call.

However, reading syke's thought process does make a good amount of sense. Perhaps you should just take a shot at bullying the little people, but I don't think I could just muck here too easily when I know he's playing on the bubble factor.

edit - I got to thinking a little about this and I think he's counting on you having paired your ace; I'm not sure someone would make this push into you and totally give you no credit for an ace. The more I think about it, the more I think this looks like a set...

On the other side, though, your opponent extracts no more value from you with an all-in if you fold. If he calls your bet and fires on the turn against your bet, then he's earned an extra bet. So does he just want you to go away and want you to be fearing the bubble, or is he playing on the fact that you know he's doing this and will think he's bluffing and he really has a powerful hand?

Man, I've analyzed this hand waaaay too hard; you should probably just take an Occam's Razor approach here and figure that the simplest explanation is the correct one, and I think he's just bullying you. But that's just my thought.

Hero played AT to win the blinds/antes.

Is villain reckless enough to play A8 or something similar in this fashion? If the answer is no, I think it's a clear fold. If villain is the sort of player that calls with weaker hands and raises stronger hands with great frequency, then I think it's a clear call. It's all on hero's read.