Committing with AQ vs shortstack limper

[JMa]

Villain has $900 behind, 10/20 5-handed at party.

Villain limps UTG, I make it $120 in SB with AQ. He calls.

The flop is 443r. I bet $250, he moves in. I am getting 2.7-1 on the call. Easy call?

We need a read on the villain, please.

[JMa]

he is new.

Fold. You can beat a bluff, that's about it. And if he limped with AK, you're in bad shape. You might outdraw a hand like 9-9, but unless he's bluffing this should be an easy laydown, IMO. Without a read, especially<<<

[JMa]

still we are only a 3-1 dog to a PP lower than queens. he has to bluff here just a tiny bit of the time for this call to be right.

Also, why are you raising it 6X the BB in the SB in a one limper pot?

And do you think he limps and calls $100 with absolutely nothing? Rarely. Without a read, you have to give him credit for a pair, at least.

You're behind, the pot isn't big enough, .....muck AQ.

[JMa]

my pos sucks ass and my hand is likely good. calling OOP with AK/AQ makes the hand worthless, imo.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, not really.

Hands we are behind
1:3 vs. any pair.
1:5.5 or so against QQ/KK
Drawing nearly dead vs. any 4.
Drawing nearly dead vs. AA

Hands we are ahead:
3:1 vs. a worse A
8:1 vs. a worse Q
3:1 vs. other worse undercards
1:1 vs. straight draw

Personally, I think it's pretty unlikely that he makes this play with anything other than a pair or a 4 often enough to warrant a call here, although I think it's real close, given pot odds.

your hand is "likely good" only when your opponent is bluffing.