Folding a set for the first time as preflopraiser.

JMa · #1 10-24-2005, 04:55 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB ($1513.50)
Hero ($1585.50)
MP ($1049)
CO ($2068)
Button ($885)
SB ($1876.57)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
Hero raises to $40, 1 fold, CO calls $40, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $35, BB calls $30.

Flop: ($160) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $100, Hero raises to $400, CO moves in for $2028, SB folds, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $2685

CO doubled up w/ a fastplayed set earlier. When I raised UTG w/ 33 I realized that flopping a set here may cause trouble. With those deepish (using online standards) stacks its gonna be hard to stack someone holding a high pair here. I think I will get stacked a lot here against a higher set.

Anybody fold preflop / just call the flop in order to keep the pot small?

psuasskicker · #2 10-24-2005, 05:04 PM

Any chance he's pushing with an overpair? I'm not overly wild about your fold. You're representing an overpair there. Maybe he beats it, but he sure might be trying to bluff you off a hand with the depth of his stack.

This board is dry enough that you can smooth call that bet. Assuming CO then raises, I'd probably reraise right on the flop. Makes decisions easier.

- C -

lapoker17 · #3 10-24-2005, 05:06 PM

Looks a lot more like an overpair than a set.

JMa · #4 10-24-2005, 05:09 PM

So If im representing an overpair here, what is CO pushing with? How would CO play here w/ a set? Just smooth call the flop?

lapoker17 · #5 10-24-2005, 05:47 PM

He could certainly have a set, but if he's capable, I would guess that he flat called you w AA/KK - maybe even QQ enough of the time to make this call correct.

And to your question - yeah - I would imagine that 99 or 44 would more often make thier move on the turn.

Like I said, you may be behind here - and I can get away from sets - but I probably make this call.

#6 10-24-2005, 06:04 PM

Ive lost so much money by flopping a set and somebody else flopping a bigger set, not catching it on the turn or the river. Im actually negative with trips because of this. i cant believe my bad luck when flopping trips.

before all this happening with me id say bad lay down, but now id say great lay down

durrrr · #7 10-24-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero ($1585.50)

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

mgsimpleton · #8 10-24-2005, 06:53 PM

he smooth called you preflop with AA. now he has your JJ right where he wants it. call.

9cao · #9 10-24-2005, 07:22 PM

Here is some wacky analysis that could be way off.

Pot will be $3350 total, it is $1145 to call assuming SB gets out of the way (maybe a bad assumption).

I think AA, 99, and 44 account for almost his whole range here (I am going to assume he pops KK preflop, maybe a bad assumption). I think he would play 99, and 44 like that preflop 100% of the time, and AA a lot less than that. For arguments sake let's say 25% of the time he flat calls. He has 2 outs if he has AA.

Now on the flop, I think he plays AA like that 100% of the time since you are representing an overpair. For arguments sake let's say he fast plays his sets on this rather dry board something like 50% of the time. You have one out if he has 99/44.

There are 6 combos of AA, 3 of 99, and 3 of 44. But I guessed he does with AA only 25% of the time, and 99, 44 only 50% of the time. Therefore it is a .333/.666 split.

(1/3)*.90*$3350 + (2/3)*.03*$3350 = $1072

Since it is only $1145 to call I think this is entirely read based. If you think he always raises AA preflop or always fast-plays sets then it is an easy laydown. If your read is the opposite then easy call. I say nice hand.

Jiminy · #10 10-24-2005, 07:59 PM

He sees a bet and raise in front of him and realizes he needs to protect his aces. I think the odds of him playing a higher set like this are to slim to make a fold correct with your odds and expectation. call the all in.

Smooth calling BB's raise on this texture of a flop is not a bad play either.