A typical river situation that confuses me

Harv72b · #1 10-21-2005, 05:39 PM

Villain in this hand is a LAG fucktard over a small sample of observed hands (basically, this session + a couple orbits while I was waiting for a seat). He hasn't done anything truly maniacal yet, but he's definitely not afraid to throw chips into the pot, and he's definitely not good. I am just starting my second orbit at the table, and have only played one other hand (my first, when I wound up chopping a huge pot with AK vs. his K9 (the river double-paired the board)). So I don't have much of a table image, but what there is, is good.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
7 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (2 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (2 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...?

I'm obviously not folding, but do I raise or call?

W. Deranged · #2 10-21-2005, 05:44 PM

I'd call. The river bet is so weird, but it seems that a high percentage of the time it's either a bluff, worthy of the fucktard he is, or it represents a rivered two pair or something.

The main thing is you do very bad against the range of two pair hands possible here. Villain seems unlikely to donk the river here with just one pair all that often, so I just call down and take a note of what he has.

toss · #3 10-21-2005, 06:14 PM

Call because I'll vomit in rage if I get 3-bet.

kross · #4 10-21-2005, 06:31 PM

His check-call on the flop probably means he doesn't yet have a pair.

His donk on the turn probably means he either picked up a draw with an 8, or he just made a pair with a 9.

His river donk could either be him betting his 9 again, because he doesn't want you to check behind, or it could be he had a straight draw on the turn, and just now picked up a pair (i.e. J8)

It could be an outright bluff, his turned straight draw not getting there, etc.

It could also be runner runner two pair.

So, it it's a bluff, he most likely won't call your raise. If it's a one-pair hand, he will probably call. If it's two pair, you're most likely toast.

So I think a call is better than a raise.

Harv72b · #5 10-21-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, it it's a bluff, he most likely won't call your raise. If it's a one-pair hand, he will probably call. If it's two pair, you're most likely toast.

So I think a call is better than a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I typically go by (and what I did here), but I can't help feeling that I'm missing out on a lot of bets in the long run by not raising enough rivers HU. In this case it likely wouldn't have mattered (he was betting a busted straight draw with 84o), but it seems like there are a lot of times when I flat call and my opponent flips over a decent 1-pair hand, which he would probably have called a raise with.

But, at the same time, I would probably have vomited with rage if I had been 3-bet by a better two pair/runner runner straight. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

kross · #6 10-21-2005, 06:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, it it's a bluff, he most likely won't call your raise. If it's a one-pair hand, he will probably call. If it's two pair, you're most likely toast.

So I think a call is better than a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I typically go by (and what I did here), but I can't help feeling that I'm missing out on a lot of bets in the long run by not raising enough rivers HU. In this case it likely wouldn't have mattered (he was betting a busted straight draw with 84o), but it seems like there are a lot of times when I flat call and my opponent flips over a decent 1-pair hand, which he would probably have called a raise with.

But, at the same time, I would probably have vomited with rage if I had been 3-bet by a better two pair/runner runner straight. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Sklansky, you have to think your hand is good 55% of the time that he calls your raise for a raise to be right. I don't feel that confident here.

Borodog · #7 10-21-2005, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
According to Sklansky, you have to think your hand is good 55% of the time that he calls your raise for a raise to be right. I don't feel that confident here.

[/ QUOTE ]

private joker · #8 10-21-2005, 08:03 PM

This is another good time to bring up sthief09's theory. Our opponents like to check-call their marginal hands. Therefore, river donkbets are more often bluffs or monsters. So what good is a river raise? If he's FOS he will fold. If he has a big hand he will 3-bet. The only hands you beat here are "marginal," i.e. TPGK, etc. So just call this river bet.

Borodog · #9 10-21-2005, 08:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is another good time to bring up sthief09's theory. Our opponents like to check-call their marginal hands. Therefore, river donkbets are more often bluffs or monsters. So what good is a river raise? If he's FOS he will fold. If he has a big hand he will 3-bet. The only hands you beat here are "marginal," i.e. TPGK, etc. So just call this river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so good I'm quoting it twice.

[ QUOTE ]
This is another good time to bring up sthief09's theory. Our opponents like to check-call their marginal hands. Therefore, river donkbets are more often bluffs or monsters. So what good is a river raise? If he's FOS he will fold. If he has a big hand he will 3-bet. The only hands you beat here are "marginal," i.e. TPGK, etc. So just call this river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

private joker · #10 10-21-2005, 08:06 PM

It should be edited to say "the only hands you beat here *that will call a raise* are marginal hands" (and he would have check-called that kind of hand).