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#51
10-21-2005, 06:05 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold. [/ QUOTE ] This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand. I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits. [/ QUOTE ] Well, hero is in small blind. It's very concievable that he has two pair or a smaller set. Villian doesn't know he has the proverable nuts (7,8). 1) On the turn, if someone is still betting pretty strong, you can make a decent judgement that you will get paid off. 2) Texture of the flop says hero has to have either two pair, or set. While JJ is remote. 3) Villian is likely ahead. Villian isn't calling thinking, I'm definately beat, I better pair the board. If he doesn't fill up, I think he just calls the river, or if it's checked, he makes a 1/2 pot bet. 
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#52
10-21-2005, 06:06 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot). [/ QUOTE ] You think the opponent has 96? T6? I don't. Maybe UTG open-limped 96 (not T6), but even in the unusual case when they did, they put a raise in on the flop or turn. Not overbetting becasue you are afraid the opponent has the flopped 2-pair that river a full house is MUB, in my opinion. Hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time here. As far as "blowing out JJ", I already discussed this. Sometimes they'll fold. Probably more often than they will call, probably. But they only have to call the $100 bet 1 time for every 4 times they call a $25 bet to make it worthwhile. I think they call more often than that.
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#53
10-21-2005, 06:08 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
1) Villian doesn't know for sure he's behind. [/ QUOTE ] I agree this is a consideration. To me, its the only think that makes villain play acceptable. (though I'm still raising with my set) [ QUOTE ] 2) Hero looks like he likes his hand, which leads to... 3) Implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] IF villain was pretty certain he was behind, I don't like his call. Clearly if he could put the hero on a straight (or, even better, 7-8s)... the only thing that will slow the hero down is if the board pairs... I don't know that he can count of getting paid off against another good player?
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#54
10-21-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot). [/ QUOTE ] You think the opponent has 96? T6? I don't. Maybe UTG open-limped 96 (not T6), but even in the unusual case when they did, they put a raise in on the flop or turn. Not overbetting becasue you are afraid the opponent has the flopped 2-pair that river a full house is MUB, in my opinion. Hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time here. As far as "blowing out JJ", I already discussed this. Sometimes they'll fold. Probably more often than they will call, probably. But they only have to call the $100 bet 1 time for every 4 times they call a $25 bet to make it worthwhile. I think they call more often than that. [/ QUOTE ] I agree 100% that the hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time. That has absolutly nothing to do with if this is a good overbet or not... What matters is who is gonna call or re-raise an overbet. Not a hand you can beat the vast majority of the time. If you check and call, then there are lots of hands you can beat, mostly busted flushes and straits who decided to bluff the river. If you overbet it yourself then you pretty much have killed any action on hands you can beat, and promise you will be stacked by hands that will beat you, they are not gonna try and milk it with an overbet coming at them. Again, this has nothing to do with how often the hero has the best hand....or if I am afraid of a 9-6. It has to do with how often you have the best hand when you overbet it and you get something other than a fold ... which in my opinion is way less than half the time making this a bad move.
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#55
10-21-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
Ok. But I disagree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think the opponenrt will put you on a steal attempt often enough to make it a winning play. But we can agree to disagree.
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#56
10-21-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. But I disagree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think the opponenrt will put you on a steal attempt often enough to make it a winning play. But we can agree to disagree. [/ QUOTE ] BTW I like the overbet on a raised pot with a few callers, but not on a 5-way limped one like this one was. Raised pot = probably overpair= call with worse hand.
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#57
10-21-2005, 06:24 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
bet/call
looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO.
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#58
10-21-2005, 06:28 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
bet/call looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Ok for the last time ... someone explain to me what betting into a busted flush draw would do? Make him fold? You already have the best hand it dont matter if he folds or not. If you check that might induce a bluff. Am I missing something here?
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#59
10-21-2005, 06:32 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
bet/call looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I think he's refering to OPs hand, as in, OP has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw, not the villan. (Referring to a bluff on a missed [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw that will more likely be called). I could be wrong though.
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#60
10-21-2005, 06:33 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] bet/call looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I think he's refering to OPs hand, as in, OP has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw, not the villan. (Referring to a bluff on a missed [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw that will more likely be called). I could be wrong though. [/ QUOTE ] Ok that makes more sense, thanks.
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