Buying a new car pending ridiculous parlay hit.

RiverTheNuts · #1 10-06-2005, 10:11 AM

So the plan is that every week I take 50 bucks profit from my poker roll and do a 10 team parlay of college football, with an occasional MLB game thrown in there.

Assuming all these are about even money, thats >25000 dollars minus juice

So I guess what Im asking is... how hard can it be to pick 10 games right in a week? I can spare the 50 bucks/week.. and I read you guys' picks before I make em, so I mean is this basically playing the lottery, or could this pan out??

I want EV neutral at worst, and variance++++++

Everyone share your parlay stories [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

CCx · #2 10-06-2005, 10:21 AM

$50 on a 10-team parlay is $35,000 with each pick -110

RiverTheNuts · #3 10-06-2005, 10:25 AM

I didnt say I was good at math [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I asked can it be done

Hell, I am a gambloor at heart, this has to be EV neutral at worst, I can afford the 50/week, Id like a car, and what a story it would be if it hits, Im game.

Indiana · #4 10-06-2005, 10:28 AM

You will not win. Its very very hard. VEEEEEEERRRRRRRRYYYYYY HARD to pick 10 games. Most of us are happy if we can pick 2/3. I would never dream of getting even 8/10 right in one weekend.

Indy

GrekeHaus · #5 10-06-2005, 10:32 AM

If you're even money on your picks, the chances of hitting are 1/1024. If you can pick at 60 percent, the odds are ~1/165.

Assuming you don't mind waiting more than a decade for your new can, you should be ok... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#6 10-06-2005, 10:46 AM

Don't bother. Increase your units played on the games you like and grind out your profit. There's no sense flushing $200 down the drain each month.

whipsaw · #7 10-06-2005, 10:55 AM

If you can withstand the $50 on a horribly -EV bet, then just withstand $100/week and go buy a car.

#8 10-06-2005, 11:33 AM

You can't even buy a car for $60,000.

DN

Indiana · #9 10-06-2005, 12:21 PM

I laughed hard when Negreanu said that on tele.

Good one,

Indy

dankhank · #10 10-06-2005, 01:41 PM

to give a sense of how crazy your plan is, when i read the header for this i assumed the post would be about how you're nine-tenths of the way through a parlay bet already, and you're thinking about what kind of car to get if you hit the last game.