AQo vs a huge field

Harv72b · #1 10-05-2005, 07:41 PM

Two-tabling 5/10 with a 3/6 table open when this one comes up. I'm at a total loss on the river.

Reads: UTG+1 is a raging maniac that I followed over from a different game; he's playing at about a 87/70/4.5 clip over ~35 hands. MP1 has been almost as maniacal about isolating on UTG+1--his numbers are 52/26/1.6 over maybe 25 hands, with the vast majority of his PFR's being 3-bets over UTG+1's raises. MP3 is about 45/9/0.6 over 25 hands--his thing is coldcalling all of UTG+1's raises with anything even remotely playable and then calling down HU regardless of the cards that fall (he's won a couple pots with Q high). Button is a multi-tabling weak/tighty that I've got some mined hands on; his numbers are 9/5/1 over ~100 hands. Button's coldcall obviously worries me more than anyone else in the hand.

My table image is incredibly tight--I've played 3 hands since joining the table 3 orbits prior, including my posting hand, showing down 2 pair with 89s (posting hand), winning one pot preflop, and check/folding the flop with 22 out of the BB. I've mostly been getting out of the way of UTG+1 & MP1's preflop shenanigans.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (21.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero...?

Do I have a value bet here, against that large a field, on this board? I'm more than a little worried that Button is calling down with AK.

#2 10-05-2005, 08:21 PM

I think you should bet. You showed strength the whole time, so by checking here, some maniac might make a bet and you wouldn't know what it meant. Bet, so that opponents may belatedly show their strength, or so that others are less inclined to get cute.

I think you will lose the pot to mp3, but it's better to find out for sure by giving him the chance to make it two bets. if he RR and someone 3bets, you'll have better foundation to decide. But, if you check and the maniacs bet and RR, what do you do?

Enough times, these people have reduced standards because of the maniacs that you can bet for value. But then, maybe my experience with maniacs is different.

thesharpie · #3 10-05-2005, 08:43 PM

I think I'd bet. Button might check behind AK if you check, but then again he might. You also miss value bets from the others if he has something like KK or AQ which he's almost surely checking behind. The action might even go bet, call, call, a maniac checkraises and you could 3 bet to knock Button out. Not sure if it's +EV but the pot is huge so it can't be that bad. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

chief444 · #4 10-05-2005, 09:33 PM

Harv,

You know you're ahead of UTG+1 and MP1 a good majority obviously. If button or MP3 have you beat it sure seems they'll just call if you bet but bet if you check. It's possible too that button has something like QQ with a club. But basically, if you check the only time it checks through is when your hand is good. And you have no real reason to worry about a raise given the flop and turn action.

Chief

thesharpie · #5 10-05-2005, 09:40 PM

Not to come off as a nit, but the OP has the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He could easily have KK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] though, I concur.

chief444 · #6 10-05-2005, 09:48 PM

whoops. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] That actually does make it closer because there aren't many hands here that button plays out this way other than AK. I'm assuming he'd cap preflop with KK. However, I still think it seems like a definite bet.

Harv72b · #7 10-05-2005, 09:57 PM

Y'all are right, and I should have bet. I didn't. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

It was checked through, and MHIG. For those keeping score at home:

UTG+1: 77 (no club)
MP1: KQs (spades)
MP3: black 88
Button: ATs (diamonds)

I expect that, had I bet, MP3 & button would've folded (Button might call due to huge pot, but I think his weak/tightedness would trump pot size), UTG+1 would've tried a check/raise, MP1 would've thought it over and finally folded, and I would've called.

FWIW, if Button had bet & UTG+1 had check/raised (which I don't doubt he would've, especially in that scenario), I would've 3-bet...my reasoning being that I was confident I was ahead of UTG+1, and I think that Button would be capable of laying down AK if I check/3-bet, even if that 3-bet was over a maniac.

But, yeah....I should've bet in the first place.

chief444 · #8 10-05-2005, 10:17 PM

Harv,

I notice in games with maniacs a lot of normally tight players get fed up with folding and start coldcalling with hands they shouldn't. Anyway, nice hand...except river. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Chief