On playing the nut boat as passively as possible...

Harv72b · #1 09-27-2005, 11:30 PM

Situation: A 3/6 table from earlier this morning. Two players just busted out and a couple more are sitting this hand out, leaving the game very short-handed. This could be a HUSH forum post, but I'm posting it here because I like here. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Reads: UTG is LAG personified--his numbers over ~60 hands are 50/30/1. He is none too good postflop. SB is weird LAGgy--44/0/4.2 over about 35 hands. I've seen SB lead the flop and turn and then check/fold the river a couple times already. I'm trying to play good TAG but getting slapped around hard by the deck, and am stuck for about 10 BBs at the start of the hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls....

kosher?

KDawgCometh · #2 09-27-2005, 11:33 PM

as long as you're raising the river, it looks pretty freakin fabulous

toss · #3 09-27-2005, 11:34 PM

Wait a minute why are we calling both the flop and turn with UTG trapped in the middle?

cold_cash · #4 09-27-2005, 11:35 PM

Heads up, maaaaybe, but here I'm raising, especially since the SB has a history of checking these kinds of rivers and the other guy is in the middle.

If anybody has anything worth calling a river bet with they have something worth calling a turn raise with, yeah?

@bsolute_luck · #5 09-28-2005, 08:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
then check/fold the river a couple times already

[/ QUOTE ] i think this is what i'm nervous about. that 2nd Ace is great as the chances of you having one have gone down and could be seen as a bluff here to raise. they'll pay now i think, so i'm raising the turn.

crunchy1 · #6 09-28-2005, 09:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Wait a minute why are we calling both the flop and turn bets from a LAG SB with a LAG UTG trapped in the middle?

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

I think this sucks. You're missing a lot of value not raising the turn.

Harv72b · #7 09-28-2005, 05:35 PM

Just because they're LAGs doesn't mean they're stupid.

Based on UTG's 50/30 stats, we can narrow down his range of hands pretty well--he does not have a pocket pair, and he does not have the case ace, as he would've raised with either of those holdings. That leaves three possibilities: he's got a gutshot draw with 23/34/24, he's calling down with two unimproved cards in hopes that he can win by pairing the river/kickers, or he decided to slowplay the flop with a 5 and then realized that the turn card counterfeited him. He'll probably call down with a 5 (most players would), but I can't imagine him calling a raise on the turn with any of his other possible holdings.

SB has a history of leading the flop & turn and then check/folding the river--basically, he loves to bluff, but has the sense to figure out that whatever it is he was betting is not good when someone calls his bets on two streets, and then bets when checked to on the river. But, he's also passive preflop, so it is possible that he's holding a pocket pair or the case ace. With a pocket pair he might decide to call down if I raise the turn, or he might decide to fold immediately and believe that either I or UTG has him beat. If he's got the case ace, he 3-bets my turn raise and blows UTG out of the hand, and I end up chopping a bigger pot with him (and, incidentally, I can count on him to lead the river, allowing me to raise there & hopefully get another bet out of UTG first).

That was my thinking--there simply weren't very many possible hands that were worth calling down with on this board, and that list gets even smaller when someone raises the double-paired turn, especially when that person raised preflop. So my primary interest became getting that extra bet out of UTG on the river, instead of folding them both out with a turn raise when I'm holding the near-nuts (and the absolute worst case scenario had 4 cards left in the deck which could hurt me).

As far as flat calling the flop, I've been re-reading TOP and this seemed like a classic way ahead/way behind situation, even though it's 3-handed rather than HU. If I raise & I'm behind, then I probably end up with the third guy getting blown out of the pot & being forced to call down with a losing hand that has little chance of improving to a winner. If I'm ahead, then I run the chance of scaring both opponents out of the pot on the cheap street. FWIW, I had planned to raise the turn if I saw the same bet/call action leading up to me, but changed my mind for the above reasons when the turn filled me up.

Entity · #8 09-28-2005, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He is none too good postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise the turn.

pokerstudAA · #9 09-28-2005, 05:40 PM

Delicious...

You might rake the whole pot or you might split. There are almost no cards that can beat you. Why not drag the middle player along?

If you raise the turn any non ace hand will fold. If the river is check/folded you wont win any more bets anyway. If you sucked out on trip 5's he will be pissed and might keep betting. An ace might three bet teh tun folding the middle player...and you split the smaller pot.

If either were folding to a river bet they were folding to a turn raise. That looks like that same size pot that you rake.

I like the Raise the river line.