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  #21  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:39 AM
steveyz steveyz is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

As long as CO is a thinking player, I don't mind the fold.
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  #22  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:05 AM
steveyz steveyz is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

The principle here is that there are a lot of hands that will take a stab at betting that turn that will give up and not fire the last barrel on the river (all PPs below Qs).
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  #23  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:42 AM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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How about if you simply expect 80% of unknowns to give up after you call the turn?

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How you arrive at that number I have no idea. I don't guess against players I don't know. I look them up and remember. Picking a number out of the air that makes the fold look better doesn't make it correct.

lf

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It is a game of numbers. Not putting numbers on this sort of thing (whether consciously or unconsciously) is just not using your brain.

You say that the fold is fundamentally wrong. Yet if 80% of unknowns give up after the turn call, it is clearly correct. I'm not saying that the 80% figure is right or wrong, I'm saying that based on the assumption it is right, folding the river is the correct play.

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Obviously its a game of numbers, i'm not an idiot. The problem is how can you safely assume that 80% of unknowns will fold. Every individual person is different at every individual moment in their poker life. Rarely do people make the same decision twice for the exact same reasons. Trying to say that one bet doesn't convince but two bets does, when you know nothing about the player, just seems silly.

I'm not opposed to the flop call. I'm certainly not opposed to the turn call. But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand. Against a known opponent perhaps the river bet can sway that to being certain enought that he's behind. Against an unknown it doesn't change anything. Hero has no knowledge of his standards, and randomly assuming that 80% of unknown online party poker 30/60 players will only bet twice with better than K-high is absurd. I'd be more inclined to believethat 80% of unknowns will bet 100% of the time with every hand they have that doesn't beat K-high. People in that game don't just "give up".


lf
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  #24  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:45 AM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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The principle here is that there are a lot of hands that will take a stab at betting that turn that will give up and not fire the last barrel on the river (all PPs below Qs).

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I understand the theory, honestly I do. The problem I have is that Hero knows nothing about the villian. With some kind of read I think you can safely assume that this guy will bet the turn with anything, but only the river with a better hand than K-high. How can you assume that against a player you know nothing about? Isn't it worth the 1bb to find out, combined with the possibilty that you still have the best hand?

lf
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  #25  
Old 09-21-2005, 03:15 AM
ALL1N ALL1N is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand.

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I'm sure you're good enough to realise that "thinking he has the best hand" is not enough. You put your opponent on a hand range. 50% this, 30% this, and 20% this. Not "yeah, I think I'm winning here."

So why can't hero call the turn thinking he's ahead 25%, but fold the river thinking he's ahead 5%?
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  #26  
Old 09-21-2005, 03:45 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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Well, without any reads, turn and river play aren't consistent,

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If your idea of consistency is doing the same thing on every street regardless of new information that is available, there's a different word for that.
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  #27  
Old 09-21-2005, 03:46 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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Isn't it worth the 1bb to find out,

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Are you kidding? For 1BB I can buy a nice meal, or pay some bills. Or I could buy an interesting book, which will satisfy my curiosity for at least several hours. [censored] spending it to see what someone had.
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  #28  
Old 09-21-2005, 07:43 AM
lil feller lil feller is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

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But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you're good enough to realise that "thinking he has the best hand" is not enough. You put your opponent on a hand range. 50% this, 30% this, and 20% this. Not "yeah, I think I'm winning here."

So why can't hero call the turn thinking he's ahead 25%, but fold the river thinking he's ahead 5%?

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I understand what your talking about, honestly I do. I just don't see it possible that vs a player he knows nothing about that a 2nd bet tips the scales that much.

lf
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  #29  
Old 09-21-2005, 12:04 PM
Chris Callahan Chris Callahan is offline
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Default Re: Please don\'t wake me, no don\'t shake me, leave me where i am

[ QUOTE ]
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But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you're good enough to realise that "thinking he has the best hand" is not enough. You put your opponent on a hand range. 50% this, 30% this, and 20% this. Not "yeah, I think I'm winning here."

So why can't hero call the turn thinking he's ahead 25%, but fold the river thinking he's ahead 5%?

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what your talking about, honestly I do. I just don't see it possible that vs a player he knows nothing about that a 2nd bet tips the scales that much.

lf

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On the turn the opponent (if he plays reasonable well) will mix his strategy so that you get a borderline call with a bluff catcher. On the river he must cut down on the bluffing frequency so that you get another tough decision. If he knew that you would never fold the river he would simply never bluff, and your call with KJ would win 0% of the time. Hence you must sometimes call the turn and fold the river.

This is simple bluffing theory.
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