More Hand Reading Fun

[MrMoo]

Here's my read from the little bit I've railbirded you. You could have any two with potential. Anything connected. Suited one or two gappers. 88-22. KQ, KJ, QJ, AJ, A10. Less likely but I'm not ruling them out, AA-99, K10, K9, Q10, J10. You're slightly LAG, think you can outplay most, and like to see a lot of flops. This is an excellent position for you as you're by far the table chip leader, have a good read on MP and have position. What is interesting is that I'm sure you're very aware that BB is likely to push here. Given that, I think that rules out unmade big hands like AK, AQ as I would think you'd be reraising here to isolate MP. Interestingly, you could be doing this here with a QQ-99 hoping BB will push (likely with a worse hand) and you can see whatever MP does before deciding what to do. With QQ-99 I don't think you want to be pushing against the second table chip leader but I know you have no problem calling a push by the BB with the same. Overall, very difficult in my opinion to narrow down your range significantly.

BB's preflop play is strange. I'm assuming he had 1488 before his call. Maybe I'm misreading that. So he's slightly below 10x BB. He's getting 5-1 on his money so if he's got a pretty good hand I think he'll be calling here. He doesn't push so I'd rule out KK-22, AK, AQ. Possibly could be trapping with AA. Although I have to think that even if he did push here, he's got to know one of you is likely to call. I don't know why he'd let you see a flop instead of just pushing with AA. Post flop he pushes. He's only pushing an additional 788 (1338-550) into a 1525 pot. Pot to you would be 2313 giving you slightly below 3-1 odds. Unless he's retarded, which I'm not ruling out, he's got to expect a call here. Flop is somewhat coordinated but unlikely to have hit you and MP. I'd say his range here is AJ, KJ, QJ, J10, J9, or any two spades, most likely that are connected.

Assuming MP folds, you should be calling with AA-JJ, 88, 33, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, or any two spades. Two overs is a close call when you consider he could be retarded and bluffing but I'd probably fold those instead of putting him back up around 3k.

[Gavagai]

It wasn't clear to me whether he had 1338 before or after calling.

[EverettKings]

It would think you'd have planned for this.

Obviously you were targeting the pfr with, as another poster put it, 'anything that resembles a hand'. Pocket pairs, any two decent looking cards, suited semitrash, etc.

On the flop, that's the bet I'd expect if you were headsup with captain predictable. But I would expect you to have some plan for the BB, obviously he plays the check-push game with most pieces of the board. Against the pfr he might not push an 8. But against you (who he reads as a positional bettor if nothing else) he's probably taking his 8 to the barn. I'd put him on 8xs, J8+, 33 or 88. Your pot odds are pretty fat so I'd stick around with two overs with a spade, hands like QxTs, and lots of stuff that expects to have 6+ outs.

What was your plan for this?

Everett

[Prime Time]

"What was your plan for this?"

He was probably planning on taking the pot right there, and did not factor in the BB, since MP w/ bigger stack was still in.

I would guess MLG wiffed, and stuck his foot in the water trying to take it down rite there (due to the min raise, he was planning on taking the pot down later).
As it turns out, MLG would have won the hand if BB was not around. Now the problem really is that the BB is around, giving a good price for Anakinso to call, but he would have to show some trash that he probably wish he did'nt have to.

If it's not trash, it's a very easy call.
You will not hurt yourself that much from calling at this point, and you could be up against a str8 flush draw getting the correct price to call.

[MrMoo]

I'm sure that MLG is prone to errors. However I'd be truly disappointed if he wasn't strongly considering the BB's role throughout this hand given his stack size.

[DonT77]

I think your range here is any 2 as you'll want to play a pot against a predictable opponent when having position and a chip advantage. The BB entered the pot too and only called PF instead of pushing his short stack over 2 players that haven't shown a lot of strength yet. I was thinking that this might be a StopNGo, but then the BB didn't bet out - so I'm thinking he probably hit the flop or has an overpair and decided to check-raise instead. I put the BB on Jx, a set, a flush draw, or an overpair. I don't think he pushes with anything less given the pot odds he's giving you (and MP) to call. If you read him as a little loose then throw in 8x as well.

You're getting like 3.68 to 1 on your call, so you'll need about 6 good outs for your call to be correct - this means you can call with drawing hands like a flush draw, an OESD, or a pair with a high spade. A hand like two overcards is a marginal calling hand as it could be drawing very thin if your opponent has an overpair or an less likely set.

[Jbrochu]

Since both you and the raiser have good sized stacks compared to the blinds, and you think you can read the raiser fairly easily post-flop because he's predictable, your pre-flop range could be relatively large. I would guess any pocket pair, any suited connectors or suited one-gapper’s, any suited Ax, non-suited AK, AQ, AJ, and possibly KQ.

Post flop it looks like you either flopped trips or top pair with something like AJ and you’re value betting and giving a flush draw incorrect odds to call. You might also be on a flush draw yourself and betting because both opponents showed weakness by checking with two spades on the board. Lastly, you could have A8 and be taking a stab at the pot due to the uncoordinated board. I cannot see two pair here since I don’t think you would call a pre-flop raise with something like J8 and nobody else in the pot yet and at least a few yet to act.

I would have a hard time putting the BB on something as strong as pocket A’s, K’s, Q’s, or J’s due to the lack of a re-raise pre-flop and the danger of checking and possibly giving two opponents a free look at the turn. Therefore, I would put the BB on something like a set of 8’s or 3’s, or AJ, or the flush draw. I cannot see two pair since the flop is so uncoordinated but I suppose he could have called from the BB with J8. A8 is also possible but unlikely. If I knew what you had, I could possibly eliminate or discount some of his possibilities.

You’re getting better than 3-to-1 to call so I suspect you should be calling with a very wide range here. Unless your flop bet was a pure bluff (which I doubt with two opponents still in the hand) then I think you’re calling with whatever you had in your hand when you put in that bet. I cannot see laying down any of the sets you could have made, nor laying down a flush draw unless it’s a very small flush draw and you’re certain the BB is on a better flush draw. I probably still call with AJ hoping my opponent is on the flush draw.

I think the only hand you might have bet the flop with that you could lay down would be A8 or a pure bluff.

[MLG]

I had Q10 of diamonds and called the push. He had A8 of hearts. I bricked.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I had Q10 of diamonds and called the push. He had A8 of hearts. I bricked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you should have played any part of this differently? If you know you're calling a BB push and the pfr is almost certainly done with the hand, maybe a stronger flop lead (~800 or pot) would fold out a few more hands.

Everett

[locutus2002]

Hero folds or reraises PF.

I have no problem coming into the pot to take it away from a predictable player ATF, and hero can do this with any two against the right player.

BUT

It's dangerous for hero to call against a miniraise when he has an expectation that a short stack, (maybe any stack) will call in the blind which is certainly the case here with BB getting over 5:1 in the pot. Because of the swollen pot, I think BB will go to the felt with any piece of the board or quality draw -- Hero has very little FE against BB,-- BB will not fold the best hand.

I'd be inclined to take a card here. MP-raiser is prostrate with a hand that most likely has A-K-Q in it. There are many cards where the board could get much uglier, and the decisions are going to be harder for the other players OOP, especially as you called PF hoping to get a complicated board.