Bush and the Levees

tylerdurden · #1 09-08-2005, 07:43 PM

"I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees."

(Bush on Good Morning America September 1st)

Bush was immediately denounced as a moron for this statement [1].

I went back and checked all of the scenarios predicting what would happen in New Orleans when a big storm rolled through [2]. None of them mention levee failure. They all assume that flooding will be caused not by breaches but by storm surge simply going OVER the levees. That didn't happen with Katrina, so I'm guessing that those in charge declared the danger over after the storm passed, relatively early on Monday. As best as I can tell, the 17th street canal levee didn't break until around 6:00PM monday evening. The industrial canal may have been somewhat earlier than that, but still well after the bulk of the storm had passed.

I certainly don't want to make excuses for Bush, and this seems like a nit, but, not having seen the entire interview from which that statement was excerpted, I don't think this particular criticism is fair. There's plenty of other stuff to beat up Bush with.

[1] http://tinyurl.com/9dx88

[2] http://tinyurl.com/8grc7

OtisTheMarsupial · #2 09-09-2005, 01:14 AM

The levees were built to withstand a category 3 hurricane, not a cat 4 or 5.
So, one could infer that after a category 4 hurricane hit, the levees might not hold up.

tylerdurden · #3 09-09-2005, 01:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The levees were built to withstand a category 3 hurricane, not a cat 4 or 5.
So, one could infer that after a category 4 hurricane hit, the levees might not hold up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of. The "rating" that they got that said they would withstand cat 3 meant that the surge associated with a cat 3 would be too small to top the levees as built. The failure that we saw (structural failure) was not the failure that was anticipated (inadequate height).

It's a nit, but it's a significant one from a engineering viewpoint. This is a distinction that Bush probably wasn't making when he said what he said, though.

New001 · #4 09-09-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The levees were built to withstand a category 3 hurricane, not a cat 4 or 5.
So, one could infer that after a category 4 hurricane hit, the levees might not hold up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of. The "rating" that they got that said they would withstand cat 3 meant that the surge associated with a cat 3 would be too small to top the levees as built. The failure that we saw (structural failure) was not the failure that was anticipated (inadequate height).

It's a nit, but it's a significant one from a engineering viewpoint. This is a distinction that Bush probably wasn't making when he said what he said, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose my question now is, and I'm trying to find the best way to phrase this... Was the structural integrity of the levees tested with regards to a hurricane of this magnitude? With the failure of multiple levees, I'd be very curious to see what kind of parameters they were supposed to hold up against structurally. Their failure most likely wasn't an "accident" or a fluke of some kind.

Cyrus · #5 09-09-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's a nit, but it's a significant one from a engineering viewpoint.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are expecting George W Bush to understand a fine point in engineering ?

pankwindu · #6 09-09-2005, 03:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The industrial canal may have been somewhat earlier than that, but still well after the bulk of the storm had passed.

[/ QUOTE ]

8:14 AM

http://tinyurl.com/aqcrr

WGUS54 KLIX 291316
FFWLIX
LAC071-087-291915-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS
ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* A LEVEE BREACH OCCURRED ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL AT TENNESSE
STREET. 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREACH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARABI AND
9TH WARD OF NEW ORLEANS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 2992 9012 2994 9003 2987 8987 3001 8985
3004 8982 3008 8993 3002 9012

pankwindu · #7 09-09-2005, 03:26 AM

The 12:10 PM NWS bulletin is particularly chilling. I can't resist the cheap shot: Was President Bush eating birthday cake at this time, or had he already made it to the golf resort?

WGUS54 KLIX 291712
FFWLIX
LAC103-117-MSC045-047-059-109-292115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS-BATON ROUGE LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 1205 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THE EYE OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING NORTH AT 16 MPH ACROSS PEARL
RIVER COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
EYE OF KATRINA...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUING FOR MANY
AREAS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

THOSE SEEKING REFUGE IN ATTICS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY TOOLS FOR SURVIVAL. FOR EXAMPLE...THOSE GOING INTO ATTICS
SHOULD TRY TO TAKE AN AXE OR HATCHET WITH THEM SO THEY CAN CUT THEIR
WAY ONTO THE ROOF TO AVOID DROWNING SHOULD FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THE ATTIC.

RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. REMEMBER...IT ONLY
TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3019 8958 3037 8841 3076 8845 3098 8945
3099 9032 3041 9020

$$

#8 09-09-2005, 08:35 AM

I was in New Orleans once.

Very strange walking on the waterfront and looking up and seeing ships going by.

Impeach Bush. Right.

How about we dig up the President who ordered the Army Corp of Engineers to keep the Mississipppi river from following its natural path.

Any non-idiot should have been able too see this coming, [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

#9 09-09-2005, 08:49 AM

People were warned .If they didnt get out or have a hatchet thats tough.

What do you expect? SuperBush to the rescue?

pankwindu · #10 09-09-2005, 09:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect? SuperBush to the rescue?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would have been better than AbsentBush.