Hand Reading, PP style

[durron597]

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Probably K10 and A7 are the only two real hands I would ever cr here. I rarely cr the river in general.

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It's funny... the reason why I didn't reply to this post is that I thought exactly "ok, MLG has the nuts or air. So wtf should I call with?!???!" Since I couldn't answer that question for UTG, I didn't reply to the thread before.

[fnurt]

I confess, I was totally baffled by this one. I didn't think you could have a real hand because I can't imagine you check-calling the turn and then checking the river unless you had a read on this guy as super-aggressive. Too often he just checks the river and you make the minimum with a big hand. But on the other hand, I couldn't see you doing this as a bluff, because an experienced player like you wouldn't expect an online player to make a big laydown, not to mention the check-raise bluff on the river is rarely seen for good reason.

Based upon this analysis, my only conclusion is that you are lying about what you had, and that you actually had A7. You might want to consider copping to this story, it could make you look better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[EverettKings]

I'm surprised villain bet the river with QJ. Unless he knew he was against some looney that would try to bluff him off of it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img], he's not getting another chip from a worse hand.

But his betting of the river does show that he likes his hand a lot, and he's not going anywhere. That much felt obvious to me, which is why I had MLG pegged on KT. MLG would probably flat call in that spot with most two pair hands, and these hands or a flopped set of 5s he'd be very likely to lead at some earlier point. I also thought he had the same read, that villain was going to call, so I ruled out a bluff.

I basically agree with strassa's read of villain's range. Feels most like AA/QQ, with some chance of JJ or QJ, and a very small chance of a total bluff. I bet (and call a push) with AA/QQ/JJ, though QJ I don't bet in the first place so whether I call a push or not is irrelevant. I don't get to the river like that with AQ/AJ, though it would be an interesting decision to bet or not.

But I'm curious what hands you thought he would fold to you in that spot MLG? Though since you decided that you disagreed with your play, maybe that's not a fair question.

Everett

[ilya]

I think your most likely holding is a weak hand that stands some chance of being good if the hand is checked down on the river, but is too weak to bet. I don't think you're on a total bluff as you checked the river and you can't be at all sure that villain will bet. The one strong hand I could see you having is a rivered two pair, as with a flopped set/two pair you probably bet out on the flop or turn, and you either check-raise or bet out on the turn with a turned two pair. Checking 2 pair on that turn in a 6-way medium-sized pot seems like asking for a suckout. Sooooo....if you do have a strong hand, I think it's most likely A7/Q7/J7, probably without a flush draw.
I can't really see you checking those hands on the river too often, though. Although it seems like there are many draws he may have missed and will now likely bluff with, I think his preflop raise and flop check narrow the possibilities a lot. He doesn't figure to have a ten unless it's AT or TT, and he probably bets the flop or checks again on the turn with the former, and checks the turn again with the latter. He doesn't figure to have a club draw unless it's with KcQc, and there's no likely holding that gives him a heart draw. His most likely holding IMO is a marginal made hand like KK or KQ. It's a little strange that he would bet the river with either of those hands, but he may well figure that you would have raised with the various Aces either preflop or on the turn, and that your big stack will encourage you to make a loose call with a Queen or a Jack.

So yeah. I think you call the turn with a hand like JT or QT thinking you are likely beat, but have outs & a chance to bluff your opponent out on the river. On the river you check because you think he'll call a moderate bet with holdings like KK/KQ, and don't want to risk a large bluff cos your hand is too good. When he bets, you know you're too likely to be beat to just call, but you figure you can make him fold a lot of hands as he hasn't shown that much interest in the pot & he has plenty stack to fold.

[Gomez22]

Would you care to explain your thought process throughout the hand and why you chose this situation to donkify the river? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

(I'm sure many more folks than myself would be interested in your thought process street by street)

[MrMoo]

Let's see how bad I can f this up.

I'm going to go step by step and try to narrow this down. The biggest problem I see with this is that to narrow down UTG's hand a decent amount I need to assume that he's a decent player. Considering his preflop min-raise, thats kinda hard.

Preflop:
UTG's min raise seems like a high pocket pair, Axs, or relatively weak high cards (AQ-A10, KQ-K10, QJ, JT).
MLG will call here with any two.

Flop:
MLG's check with two clubs on board likely rules out AA, JJ, 55, AJ, A5.
UTG's checks with two clubs on board and A LOT of people in the pot. I'd rule out him trapping with trips here because of that. I'd also rule out two pair. Probably KK and he's scared of the A, KQ-K10, QJ, JT or a weak ace. He'd likely bet out with AQ, so we rule that out. That leaves us with KK, KQ-K10, QJ, JT, A10-A2.

Turn:
UTG's bet on the turn shows he's still interested. His little less than half the pot bet seems like a probe. Since the board is double paired he wants to get draws out but he doesn't really like his hand and wants to get away if he can. So I think his hand range stays mostly the same but you might be able to rule out KJ as I would think the Q would scare him.
MLG's call here can narrows his range down drastically. MLG definitely doesn't have trips or two pair because he wouldn't flat call with any of those. Flush draw is definitely possible. As is a made straight. Ax is possible but unlikely. I think most everything else is out as he'd raise here with most other hands fearing UTG has a flush draw.

River:
UTG's bet doesn't mean too much. I'd still say KK, KQ, K10, QJ, or weak ace.
MLG pushes. Hmm. This confuses me. If he had the made straight I would think he'd simply double UTG's 300 and try to suck out a little more. Still possible though if MLG put UTG on a decent hand which would call a push. A busted flush draw is possible but unlikely as I think MLG would think that UTG would probably call with K10, Ax and possibly with KQ, KK. However I'm doubting that MLG thinks he has the straight. A7 makes some sense.

So...
UTG: K10, A10-A2, KK, KQ
MLG: K10, A7 or busted flush draw

UTG should call with K10, A7.

[MLG]

Street by Street.

Preflop: I have K4s, every poker player alive is in this pot, the call is automatic.

Flop. I have a nut flush draw. yay. betting is bad since if UTG had a hand he will raise and knock everybody out. I check planning to call a bet.

Turn. gee, my draw is even better, but I only have 1 card left. A bet is unlikely to pick up the pot with such a large field, so I'll check. Now, UTG bets smallish which confuses me. He might have improved a hand like KJ/JQ/QQ, he might be trying to pick up the pot with a hand like 88/99/1010. I almost raised the turn, but decided to just call and look at the river since i might get called by some combination/drawing hands on the turn, even if he thought he was behind.

River. A blank hits and he bets again, and again its a pretty small bet. Im confused by what possible hands play this way, and think there is a good chance that this bet means he is trying to move me off a hand like an A or Q. I also think that a push by me looks very strong and may make him lay down some hands like QJ. So, I push. I was wrong.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm curious what hands you thought he would fold to you in that spot MLG? Though since you decided that you disagreed with your play, maybe that's not a fair question.


[/ QUOTE ]


at the time I thought there was decent chance he has a hand like KQ, KK, 1010 or some such that was not value betting, but bluffing. I also discounted hands like QJ thinking they would check behind. Oops.

[MrMoo]

After reading through the posts I'm pretty happy with my analysis. I will say I'm pretty pissed I missed QQ for UTG. Definitely possible.