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  #11  
Old 09-06-2005, 10:56 PM
RavenJackson RavenJackson is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

I will posit a guess, despite the fact that it will probably expose my ignorance.

I put the UTG on a fairly hefty starting hand AA, KK, AK, QQ or JJ. He/she may have been hoping for the reraise preflop. The check on the flop is a bit confusing. If he hit a set, top pair or 2 pair I would expect a bet, that being said, I would expect a continuation bet on any flop. He/she may be slow playing a set on a 2 flush board [AA, JJ]or checking a second pair [KK, QQ].

I put you on a broader range, even though you are out of position, you see the cheap flop. I put you on AQ, AK, AJ, KQ(s), K10(s). On the flop I suspect you are drawing to the flush or the straight. As you are out of position I do not make much of the check. I think you turned the nut straight [K10].
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  #12  
Old 09-06-2005, 10:57 PM
MLG MLG is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

here's the thing. trying to guess the hands by the tone of my post is sort of pointless to improving your poker game.

I'll get you started with this. Why would I never check raise all-in with just an A here?
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  #13  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:06 PM
dmk dmk is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

preflop:

UTG at this point has a wide range of hands, perhaps limited to suited connectors and any suited face cards?
Hero has any 2 suited (but obviously not something like KK thats strong enough to rr)

flop:

Hero still could have close to any 2 suited. Its possible hero may have gone for a c/r w/ a hand like 55 or A5 w/ 5 ppl left to act. Its difficult to eliminate many hands at this point.

UTG must have completely missed that flop...i can't imagine not betting as the preflop raiser when there is a flush draw and broadway draws if you've gotten any piece. Its slightly possible a donk could check here w/ AA, but very unlikely.

turn:

UTG is very unlikely to have KT w/ less than 1/2 pot bet and 2 flush draws out. At this point, it is likely he has something like QxJx. KcJc almost has to bet this flop, so I doubt that is in his range. AA is still possible, but unlikely. QQ is also a possibility now, as he seems uninterested on the flop but comes to life w/ the Q turn.

Hero calls. The check/call is pretty confusing. Its possible hero has KxTx and is looking for a non-club/heart to river. Flush draws are also possible. I can't imagine a set or 2-pair here. I think the chips need to get in the middle on the turn. I'm thinking the same thing w/ KT.

river:

UTG still has the likely range of QJ, a possible QQ, and a less possible AA. All of these will most likely bet the river.

Hero c/r all-in. At this point, hero either has the nuts or absolutely nothing, IMO. Its a very strange line throughout the hand for Hero, and I can't imagine what else is played in this manner. If hero has put villian on the above hands, and feels villian will bet all of them, then he can safely c/r his KT. I still feel a missed flush draw, but its possible that missed flush draw is still KT.

Strange and interesting hand. Can't wait to see other responses/results.

edit for the calling range:
it all depends on how often you're willing to c/r bluff here w/ a missed draw. his hands are just way too strong to fold in this spot. i think villian can justify a call to pick off the odd bluff - or 2-pairs, and underset (in the case of qq/aa).
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  #14  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:10 PM
Annulus Annulus is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

[ QUOTE ]
here's the thing. trying to guess the hands by the tone of my post is sort of pointless to improving your poker game.

I'll get you started with this. Why would I never check raise all-in with just an A here?

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for being pateint with me. because you will only get called by a hand that beats you.
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  #15  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:10 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

I've got you on A,7 and UTG on something like J,10 clubs or J,Q of clubs. I can't see UTG having a big hand (pocket A's or Q's) and checking that flop, and I can't see how you have a big hand and don't re-raise pre-flop with all those limpers.

I think UTG checks on the flop planning on the check-raise with his 4 to the flush, but since it gets checked around he doesn't get the chance.

He knows you don't turn the straight because you would need to re-raise to protect against the flush draw.

The river gives you A's up, and you're pretty sure he has a busted flush draw with either a medium pair or a lesser two pair than you.

You don't push with just a pair of A's because the only way you get called is if you're beat.

I think there is a slim chance UTG has AJ or AQ but if so he made a mistake not betting the flop.
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  #16  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:15 PM
dmk dmk is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

in my original post i forgot about the possibility of AhXh for hero. i'm not completely sold on that one quite yet. everyone is saying Ah7h, but that means he is equally likely to have AhTh through Ah2h on the turn. i'm not sure this is the case yet.
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  #17  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:21 PM
Jason Strasser Jason Strasser is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

MLG's hand range is infinite preflop so I'm not sure why people are trying to confidently guess his exact hand here because there seem to be so many possibilities.

Here's the thing, MLG has a hand here a vast majority of the time. A party guy minraises UTG checks the flop then shows interest in the hand on the turn by leading into the billions of people he let see the flop cheap and the turn for free. He probably either flopped a monster or ended up making a hand on the turn like QJ or QQ. I guess most of the times they will be scared of a flush draw here and bet the flop with monsters on the flop, but definitely not always.

On the river all signs point to the fact that the villain has a big hand, and given the texture of the board and the action you cant expect the villain to make any type of fold here because a missed draw is such a convenient read.

MLG's hand is going to be better than top two or worse than king high basically all the time I'd think given an average read, and even so I think MLG is too wise to bluff most people on pp like this.

So KT? I'm not really buying a turned two pair because I feel like he would probably lead into the field with this type of hand.

-Jason
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  #18  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:22 PM
dmk dmk is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

holy [censored] i said what strassa said, i must be making some progress in my game lol
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  #19  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:36 PM
JohnFR JohnFR is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

I haven't read any replies yet, I wanted to crack at this and then read them. I think it would be easiest to go over your hands every street.

Preflop - Any 2 cards, minraise so you were getting huge odds, so any 2 here.

Flop - No new information, I can't decide if you were going for the check raise, but since nobody bet you don't get the chance.

Turn - I assume that you wouldn't try a check raise on the turn because it checked around on the flop. You flat call, so you either have some sort of drawing hand(If you have a drawing hand it needs to be a big drawing hand since you paid quite a bit for it, so I am thinking T8h, T9h, T9c, T8c, Kxc, Kxh, possibly a small pair with a flush draw, 5xh, Qxc, Jxc) some sort of hand that gives you a straight and flush draw. Or you have some hand that you think will be good even with a free card(by calling you are essentially giving a free card, that is why calling sucks) I don't think a single pair besides maybe the A with a straight or flush draw would be good enough to call(instead of checkraising that is) this bet so, AK, AT, Axh. I could almost see flat calling with a hand that JUST made 2 pair on the turn, I think that you would lead that flop with 2 pair, so another hand you might flat call on the turn is, AQ, JQ, 5Q. The last hands that I could see you calling with is the nuts KT.

River comes with no club or heart, I don't think you would check raise somebody with a completely missed flush draw, especially when he really seems to want to commit himself to this pot(he could have checked behind to see a showdown, unless he missed a flush draw then he would bet trying to bluff). I really don't see you putting out a stone cold bluff or a bluff with one of the bottom pairs. So after this bet, I would say you have
MLG - A5-AQ(I know I am not including AK, I think you would have bet flop), KT-KQ,Q5,Q7c,QT,QJ,J7c,57h, and lastly AA, I don't see you playing anything but top set the way you played it, you may be capable of playing middle or bottom set this way, but I would put you on that hand.

So if I was the other guy I would probably call with AT-AK, any 2 pair hand besides 57o, any set, and of course KT.

How did I do, I bet this is way off rofl, but I did like thinking about this
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  #20  
Old 09-06-2005, 11:40 PM
MLG MLG is offline
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Default Re: Hand Reading, PP style

I think your analysis is excellent. I wish I had done it that well on the spot. My only question is why you are willing to give me KQ/KJ on the riverm but not a busted draw. Don't they amount to the same thing?
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