Hand Reading, PP style

MLG · #1 09-06-2005, 10:32 PM

Ok, here we go. Party Super Tuesday
UTG minraises to 60 and 4 people call. I call in the BB with 2410.
The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It checks around. Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The blinds check and UTG bets 150 into the 360 pot. All fold to me, I call. The river is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I check, UTG bets 300 leaving himself with about 1k. I push.

So, put UTG on a range, put me on a range, and what hands should UTG call with.

Annulus · #2 09-06-2005, 10:43 PM

ill make my guess on hands. he has QJ and you have A suited with a middle kicker.

Che · #3 09-06-2005, 10:44 PM

MLG: 82% Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A7 of any flavor (most likely), 15% bluff (most likely missed flush draw), 3% 77

UTG: Range is very wide. Should call with any hand that beats 75. 75 is borderline call, but should not be in his (admittedly wide) range anyway, so irrelevant.

Later,
Che

Annulus · #4 09-06-2005, 10:44 PM

he did not put you on the straight.

MLG · #5 09-06-2005, 10:44 PM

why? That's the important part. Anbody can generate two hands, its the thought process that makes you better.

Che · #6 09-06-2005, 10:47 PM

KT with flush draw on turn. Include that in the 2-pair group (it really doesn't change much since KTs of either of the two relevant suits is very unlikely).

#7 09-06-2005, 10:49 PM

Ok I don't think anyone has AA JJ AJ Ax because your not checking any of these in a four way pot with the flush draw on board. Your opponent could easily have QQ but minimum preflop raise makes this unlikely. So KQ QJ are possibilities. you could have 77 or the obvious straight with K 10. You'd have to be brave to call with less than the str8. My two cents for what they're worth.

MLG · #8 09-06-2005, 10:50 PM

I should probably add, what range do you think UTG bets the river with.

Annulus · #9 09-06-2005, 10:53 PM

true. im not very good at the math behind hand ranges. but from the tone in your post, i feel he donked you. So, then I could see a donk raising QJ suited UTG. Flopped middle pair, he wakes up on turn with 2 pair and he plays them like the nuts.

Im guessing you were trying to steal the pot on the river when the scare card falls. he calls with 2 pair.

stevepa · #10 09-06-2005, 10:54 PM

I really can't see you having much other than KT or a missed flush draw. You have to be at least somewhat worried he's slowplaying a set (probably of aces with the minraise) so i don't think you'd be particularly likely to raise a two pair hand here. I don't think JJ or 55 are very likely hands for you but I suppose they're possible too.

Pot's 2260 after you push, so he's getting about 2.3-1 to call. I would say his range of hands is something like AA-JJ, maybe AK-AJ and KQ. The sets and top-pairs he was check-raising the flop with and whiffed, KK/QQ/KQ he was giving up and then either hit the turn or decided his kings are likely good. I really can't come up with other hands that he would play that way. I would call with all of them. I think your most likely hand is KT but I think it's a missed flush draw often enough.

Time to read some replies and see why I'm wrong...

Steve