Bubble decision in a satellite - Page 2

cha59 · #11 08-28-2005, 10:04 PM

Its not a turbo but notice the 400/800 blinds, what the converter didnt show is there is a $50 ante as well and five players with smaller stacks than hero. Only one player needs to get KO'd and everyone else wins.

One orbit at a full table costs 1650 which is more than the two shortest stacks have left.

Exitonly · #12 08-28-2005, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
no way you fold more than likey noone is going to call you any way.Move in.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way you fold? The blinsd will put two people all-in before the blinds even get arouund to you again.

Chancees of folding into the money from his spot are probably higher than 90%...

if his aces get called (big if) he's out around 20% of the time...
if he doesn't get called, he just bought himself an orbit that he WONT need.. it's not going to take 3 orbits to knock 1 person out.

edit:

Let me clarify.. his chances of FOLDING into.. like if he sits out, he'll make the money 90+%...
if he's there watching, and sees that things aren't going the right way, he can find his own opportunity to steal and last a bit longer. Making his chances of winning close to 100% by folding here.

adanthar · #13 08-28-2005, 10:12 PM

I know I said I don't want to fold but that's because I have no self control.

Pushing is so bad that it's just another reminder of how bad people play sats.

cha59 · #14 08-28-2005, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think at this point it is reasonable to assume you can fold into the money. Unless a few of those people behind you double up id fold here.

remember with 2k and those blinds anyone shortstacked who pushes is going to get called by multiple people in an attempt to knock him out. Fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually shorties were less than 2000. I cant remember exactly, but I think they were about 1100 and 1700 respectively.

cha59 · #15 08-28-2005, 10:48 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t23324)
MP2 (t22665)
MP3 (t5160)
CO (t8470)
Hero (t6753)
SB (t36362)
BB (t34294)
UTG (t11879)
UTG+1 (t24106)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls t800, MP3 calls t800, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t3200) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets t4310 (All-In), SB calls t4310, BB calls t4310, MP2 folds.

Turn: (t16130) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks.

River: (t16130) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: t16130

Results in white below: 
SB has 8h 8s (two pair, queens and nines).
BB has Ks Js (two pair, queens and nines).
MP3 has Qd Kh (full house, queens full of nines).
Outcome: MP3 wins t16130. 

I think I read something about a similar situation in HPFAP. I'm mildly surprised no one mentioned that situation in that book.

I never thought I'd ever fold AA preflop, but I've never been in a siutation like this before. I couldnt think of a good enough reason to play any hand at that point.

FWIW, hero won the seat a few hands later when someone busted. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

KramerTM · #16 08-29-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like moving in here for the reason that if they all fold you pick up $2800 if you get called you are the favorite.Just flat calling here is a bad idea,because now you are letting the SB and BB see a cheap flop to crack your Aces.And AA doesn't fair to well against 4 others.You could make a standard raise of $2400 or so.But It would be kind of obvious that you wanted a call.Make the all-in you'll get more calls from the bigger stacks with there AJ and KQ and middle pairs.You'll get called by them with the small raise to but they won't be getting a good price.Plus you are on the button it looks more like a steal from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do the opposite of everything said here and you'll be just fine.

I like folding here. Calling for set value isn't terrible, but still risky.

KramerTM · #17 08-29-2005, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t23324)
MP2 (t22665)
MP3 (t5160)
CO (t8470)
Hero (t6753)
SB (t36362)
BB (t34294)
UTG (t11879)
UTG+1 (t24106)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls t800, MP3 calls t800, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t3200) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets t4310 (All-In), SB calls t4310, BB calls t4310, MP2 folds.

Turn: (t16130) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks.

River: (t16130) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: t16130

Results in white below: 
SB has 8h 8s (two pair, queens and nines).
BB has Ks Js (two pair, queens and nines).
MP3 has Qd Kh (full house, queens full of nines).
Outcome: MP3 wins t16130. 

I think I read something about a similar situation in HPFAP. I'm mildly surprised no one mentioned that situation in that book.

I never thought I'd ever fold AA preflop, but I've never been in a siutation like this before. I couldnt think of a good enough reason to play any hand at that point.

FWIW, hero won the seat a few hands later when someone busted. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

All kidding aside, you're my hero. Well played. You deserve to win your seat if you have that kind of discipline. Smart smart laydown. Looks like calling would've knocked you right out of the tourney, huh?

cha59 · #18 08-29-2005, 03:41 PM

Thanks.

Like I said I never ever considered folding AA before, but this situation called for it.

I know learning from results is not the way to improve, but this one shows that playing the hand carried its share of risk.

I would not have busted here, but I would have been severely wounded to the point that I might have been the next one knocked out.

durron597 · #19 08-29-2005, 04:23 PM

MP3 is not calling your push with KQo. I know this sounds results oriented but still, you would have had the best hand on the river here.

On this table though it looks like the big stacks were willing to risk getting into likely -EV situations preflop just to try to end the tournament, since that's the case you have a fold here, someone will bust before you do.

fnurt · #20 08-29-2005, 04:35 PM

On the button with only 1 player needing to go out, this seems like a clear fold.

I was in a similar situation once on Stars when the 5 minute break was called. I went into the kitchen thinking, "Wow, I'm in one of those situations where I'd have to fold AA if I got it." Very first hand after the break was AA, and into the muck it went.