A8s on the button against MP raise. Fold, rereaise, or cold call

[CORed]

Here is a purely hypotheitcal situation. You are on the button holding A8 suited. A MP player raises. What do you do? Well, naturally, the answer is: It depends. It depends on what hands the MP player would raise with. I'm going to use poker stove to give us some idea of what the best play is here. I'm also making one simplifying assumpion: If you cold call, both blinds will call. If you rereais, both blinds will fold. Also, pokerstove assumes that all players go clear to the river. This will make cold calling look better than it really is, because the blinds in the real world are not going to call all the

Heads up simulations are run with "enumerate all". 4-way are run "monte carlo" until the numbers converge to 3 digits.

To be fair, the showdown simulation makes cold calling look better than it is, becuase the blinds are not usually going to stay all the way to the river. But it looks like my intuitive belief that with the suited ace, mid kicker hand, letting the blinds syat in is better is not too far off the mark. It also looks like this is a fold against any but the most donkerifficly LAGtastic opponents.
Okay, since we are hypothetically playing on Party 20/40, let's assume that the MP is a total maniac who will try to steal the blinds with any 2.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,390,289,600 games 14.453 secs 580,522,355 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 61.9438 % [ 00.61 00.01 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 38.0562 % [ 00.37 00.01 ] { random }


36,290,449 games 158.063 secs 229,594 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.4838 % [ 00.32 00.02 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 22.1673 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 22.1623 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 22.1866 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }

</pre><hr />

Normalized equity isolated = 61.9438 % * 2 = 1.238876
Normalized equity w/blinds = 33.4838 % * 4 = 1.339352

Well, we definitely want to play against the raise any two maniac, and it looks like the cold call is somewhat better, EV-wise. Meta-game considerations, i.e. spanking the maniac good, might shift it to isolating.

Okay, that wasn't too realistic. Even the LAGgiest of Party 20/40 maniacs have some method to their madness. Lets restrict the range of hands a bit.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,308,185,792 games 3.843 secs 600,620,814 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.0638 % [ 00.48 00.04 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 47.9362 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K3s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-K8o, QJo }
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28,288,404 games 128.844 secs 219,555 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.0202 % [ 00.27 00.02 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 28.1731 % [ 00.26 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K3s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-K8o, QJo }
Hand 3: 21.3989 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 21.4078 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { random }
</pre><hr />
isolated = 52.0638 % * 2 - 1 = 1.041276
EV with blinds = 29.0202% * 4 = 1.160808

Not much value to reraising here. Cold calling might be better, especially if the blinds are loose post-flop.

Ok, let's assume our MP raiser is a solid, winning player with a pretty agressive, somewhat loose preflop style. Somebody like me.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
ext results appended to pokerstove.txt

869,850,432 games 1.437 secs 605,323,891 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.5611 % [ 00.38 00.02 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 60.4389 % [ 00.59 00.02 ] { AA-88, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,764,468 games 230.891 secs 219,863 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 25.0871 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 36.5771 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 19.1713 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 19.1645 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { random }
</pre><hr />

Normalized equity isolated = 39.5611 * 2 = 0.791222 Yuck!
Normalized equity with blinds = 25.0871 * 4 = 1.003484

The isolation raise is pure chip spewing here, the cold call has a +EV all-in, but probably not in an actual game. This is a clear fold.

Okay, let's assume that the MP raiser would only raise wiht KK here. He likes to limp-reraise with aces, and he limps or folds everything else.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,095,296 games 0.063 secs 652,306,285 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.9297 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 68.0703 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { KK }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,163,621 games 80.063 secs 251,846 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.4595 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { A8s }
Hand 2: 50.9413 % [ 00.51 00.00 ] { KK }
Hand 3: 12.3017 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 12.2975 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }

EV isolate
</pre><hr />

Normalized equity isolated = 0.638594
Normalized equity with blinds = 0.97838

Obviously the correct play here is to fold. Reraising is bankroll suicide. But the cold call isn't as bad as you might think.

[imported_stealthcow]

you could've just mailed this to stheif

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a purely hypotheitcal situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[TStoneMBD]

i didnt read all your data because im not up to the challenge right now, but i thought i would respond anyway because i feel that i can contribute.

your pretense is flawed. any hot and cold preflop equity that you receive that indicates that coldcalling with A8s is of higher value when the blinds will call with any holding than when you 3bet and the blinds fold every hand is obvious. you would play A8s in a potentially dominated suited when you are up against 2 100% Vpip players. if 2 100 VPIP players limp in and a player raises, do you coldcall with A8s? of course.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
what a douchebag

[/ QUOTE ]