NL 5/10...Folding Set And It's Not Close

[anduril]

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Villian seems solid, (18/6/3)

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AH HA! We found the problem. I wouldn't call this "solid" so much as "tighty mcwhitey"

i would not fold that hand...im a fish

[LethalRose]

70 hands @ the table and all you can say about villian is hes solid based on his stats?

[Lucky]

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70 hands @ the table and all you can say about villian is hes solid based on his stats?

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All that's really matters is that he's not the donk. He's not crazy, so to that action, I muck. I'm also figuring he read me for lower set on that board and figured he just might get the 200bb+ out of me. It seems -ev, unless more people call than i'd think.

[Prevaricator]

What if you had 66 instead? Still easy fold?

[Lucky]

Then I go into tank. It's just so bizarre that a tightish player is basically raising 3k into another tightish player with rag flop.

But yeah, I probably still fold. That bet looked like pure nuts to me.

[magicmntn]

I don't see how this isn't even close to a call. Villain makes a massive overbet. Without getting into a discussion again on overbets, it smells to me like AA or KK. He knows you are solid, but he knows donk is a donk. It looks to me like he could be sensing you are trying to take a hand away from donk. I think for you to automatically assume a set is giving tighty mcwhitey way too much credit. Not to mention your limp preflop could just as easily mean 9 10s or something similar. To say this isn't even close is a bold statement. I might muck it, but then again I might not. I think it is very close.

[Leroy Soesman]

My first inclination is that it IS close as well. I'll grant you that given your experience against this opponent you thought it was a clear fold. But you don't provide nearly enough information on him to convince me that your hand isn't good here.

If he did have a set I figure he'd like to get payed off and not push you out of the pot. So, to lay it down I'd think you'd need some kind of read on him which goes something like:

"I know that he puts me on a pair, overpair, 2pair or set probably. And he has reason to believe that if he pushes his higher set, I will be unlikely to believe him and call allin as a significant dogg."

My take on this is that he has no way yet of putting you on anything but a made hand yet, unless there is information you haven't provided yet (maybe you have only raised the flop with 2 pair or stronger, i dunno) you seem to be representing a much wider range with your raise on the flop than just a set. Therefore it seems strange to me that your opponent would want to push you out of the pot in this spot with a higher set.

Maybe you could provide information of hands that occured previously between you or villain, or between villain and another which might be relevant here.

[Prevaricator]

AA limping behind the donk? If it's not a set (its odd that he didnt raise 99 to isolate the donk) then its more likely some sort of straight draw than a one pair.

[DcifrThs]

im curious to know the opposite of what ray zee has said in the past.

ray said in an old post something to this effect (i forget the exact #s but its close to 1/2) "ive folded a set w/ no straight or flush possible 4 times in my life. i was right twice."

my question to ray is: what about the times you called massive overbets like this and were beat vs. you won?

Barron