99

[crunchy1]

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what is your reasoning on pf?

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TILT! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Seriously.... I thought it was close and I was pretty confident from watching a few orbits that the Villians here played pretty bad postflop.

[sean c]

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I missed the poster and somehow forgot about the SB. It should look like this (assuing UTG+1 calls every time):

Lets assume UTG calls 100% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 18.5:3.5. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 18.5:3.5 isn't the same thing as 5.3:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 18.5:3.5. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 3.5 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 3.5:35. Then substract 18.5 from 35 and you get 16.5. You need to make 16.5SB postflop when you hit your set.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
18.5SB + 4SB = 22.5SB (preflop)
16.5SB + ~6SB = 22.5 (postflop)
Total: 45SB

The 1:10 number is a number someone came up with (Sklansky?) that have been accepted for estimating how often a set holds up. Given the previous raise, 3-bet, cap it should probably be a little higher for this hand as the risk of hitting and losing is greater.

Even though I missed some crucial information I think the preflop call is pretty slim, but might be correct.

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Thanks Nick I agree the pre flop call is slim but far from terrible.

[B Dids]

2/4 tends to be a passive enough game where seeing preflop action like this means that 99 is no good.

I like post flop. Knowing if MP2 would cold call with JJ would be helpful. If you don't think he would, I'd keep firing on the river.

[crunchy1]

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I missed the poster and somehow forgot about the SB. It should look like this (assuing UTG+1 calls every time):

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Note: The OP hand says "UTG posts $2" - this player is actually the BB. Converter issues.

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To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
18.5SB + 4SB = 22.5SB (preflop)
16.5SB + ~6SB = 22.5 (postflop)
Total: 45SB...
...Even though I missed some crucial information I think the preflop call is pretty slim, but might be correct.

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Thanks for the analysis! I thought it was close - I didn't think it was "making up 11BBs postflop" close - but at this table I don't think I was too far off. I had expected to need to make up around 8-9 postflop - which still might be too much to expect. If the PF call was a mistake I don't think it's a huge one.

[crunchy1]

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Knowing if MP2 would cold call with JJ would be helpful. If you don't think he would, I'd keep firing on the river.

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I agree - unfortunately my read wasn't good enough. I definitely put JJ into a cold-calling range for a seemingly loose/passive at the Party 2/4. Check/calling the river seemed really weak/tight which is why I posted.

[ErrantNight]

I'd seriously consider folding preflop but if you made it to the river with two fish I'm raising and it's only a tough decision whether to call a 3-bet or cap.

[B Dids]

What hands are you putting MP2 on?

[PTjvs]

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What hands are you putting MP2 on?

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A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 22, J9, Reverse & Draw 2. I seriously don't think it really matters; you have the 2nd nuts, I think slowing down is a definate mistake. Slow down with an overpair, TPTK, top 2 pair, etc. Don't slow down with 2nd set at these low limit tables when people do stupid stuff for seemingly no reason consistantly.
Especially when you have a good chance for overcalls from a 3rd wheel who is pure dead money.

jvs

[ErrantNight]

AJ clubs, J9, overplayed AJ, WAY overplayed QT, QJ, or KJ clubs, poorly played overpairs, to a much smaller extent 22, or the dreaded JJ. Yes I'm offering caveats with each of these, but we also have a read of all caps FISH here. And certainly fish run into hands, too, and the cold-call going-nuts are scary enough that 3-bet on this river I'm probably just calling... but even if JJ makes sense given the action there's also a limited number of combinations vs. the spread I'm feeling a fish might be playing here.

[crunchy1]

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we also have a read of all caps FISH here.

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This was my OP: "2 Villians on the river are FISH over small samples (<50 hands)"

I didn't intend for the capitalization of "FISH" to make it more prominent - I just capitalize all the PT reads that way (i.e. TAG, LAG, TAN, FISH...).

They definitely were worthy of a capital FISH. However, I didn't really know that at the time. Further hands in the session proved my initial reads more correct than I thought. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]