99 - Page 2

Nick Royale · #11 08-23-2005, 10:08 AM

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I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

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Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?

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Lets assume UTG calls 50% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 16.5:4. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 16.5:4 isn't the same thing as 4.25:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 16.5:4. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 4 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 4:40. Then substract 16.5 from 40 and you get 23.5. You need to make 23.5SB postflop when you hit your set. 26SB was a pretty quick estimation from my part, and not a very accurate one.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
16.5SB + 4SB = 20.5SB (preflop)
23.5SB + ~8SB = 31.5 (postflop)
Total: 52SB

On 3/6 which I usually play that would equal 156$. I know this is a poor comparision, but the biggest pot I've ever won was 161$, 2nd biggest 146$. I find it hard to assume a average pot on 156$ just because of heavy preflop aggression.

Nick Royale · #12 08-23-2005, 10:14 AM

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That you are still 3 headed on the river just makes this even more obvious; you only have to be ahead more than 1/3 to make this profitable. Do you seriously think you are behind here more than a third of the time?

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You're making things too simple. If UTG+1 holds a hand like AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you need to be ahead about 60% of the time to bet.

PTjvs · #13 08-23-2005, 10:16 AM

Yes. and IMO you are ahead here 90%+ of the time.

jvs

PTjvs · #14 08-23-2005, 10:19 AM

Let me overgeneralize here.

When I flop a set, and no reasonable draws come in, I am capping every. single. street. Especially if I still have 2nd set by the river. If this is a leak, it certainly isn't my biggest one.

jvs

Nick Royale · #15 08-23-2005, 10:20 AM

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also, if you think you are good on the turn, what has changed for the river? if you cap the turn, your hand hasn't changed since the turn

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I didn't cap the turn. I think a lot changes when a fishy player caps the turn after I capped the flop and lead/3-bet the turn.

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I hate the term fish and playing fishy. Some use "playing fishy" for a player that are playing strange in some kind of way (maybe at random). I assume the opponent is loose/passive. In that case I think you should only check/call the river

sean c · #16 08-23-2005, 10:22 AM

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I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.

Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.

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Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?

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Lets assume UTG calls 50% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 16.5:4. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 16.5:4 isn't the same thing as 4.25:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 16.5:4. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 4 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 4:40. Then substract 16.5 from 40 and you get 23.5. You need to make 23.5SB postflop when you hit your set. 26SB was a pretty quick estimation from my part, and not a very accurate one.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
16.5SB + 4SB = 20.5SB (preflop)
23.5SB + ~8SB = 31.5 (postflop)
Total: 52SB

On 3/6 which I usually play that would equal 156$. I know this is a poor comparision, but the biggest pot I've ever won was 161$, 2nd biggest 146$. I find it hard to assume a average pot on 156$ just because of heavy preflop aggression.

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I am figuring UTG poster and BB are folding and everyone else is calling. Crunchy is in the SB 1/2 bet blind structure. 17.5/3.5 on the call and how did you come up with 10/1? I agree there are times he hits his set and still loses just wanting to know how you came up with this number.

crunchy1 · #17 08-23-2005, 10:28 AM

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also, if you think you are good on the turn, what has changed for the river? if you cap the turn, your hand hasn't changed since the turn

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I didn't cap the turn. I think a lot changes when a fishy player caps the turn after I capped the flop and lead/3-bet the turn.

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I hate the term fish and playing fishy. Some use "playing fishy" for a player that are playing strange in some kind of way (maybe at random). I assume the opponent is loose/passive. In that case I think you should only check/call the river

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I use the two interchangeably. In this case you are correct - I was referring to loose/passive play.

?? - I thought we referred to players that play strange as "DONKS"?

crunchy1 · #18 08-23-2005, 10:31 AM

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what is your reasoning on pf?

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TILT! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Nick Royale · #19 08-23-2005, 10:32 AM

I missed the poster and somehow forgot about the SB. It should look like this (assuing UTG+1 calls every time):

Lets assume UTG calls 100% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 18.5:3.5. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 18.5:3.5 isn't the same thing as 5.3:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 18.5:3.5. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 3.5 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 3.5:35. Then substract 18.5 from 35 and you get 16.5. You need to make 16.5SB postflop when you hit your set.

To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
18.5SB + 4SB = 22.5SB (preflop)
16.5SB + ~6SB = 22.5 (postflop)
Total: 45SB

The 1:10 number is a number someone came up with (Sklansky?) that have been accepted for estimating how often a set holds up. Given the previous raise, 3-bet, cap it should probably be a little higher for this hand as the risk of hitting and losing is greater.

Even though I missed some crucial information I think the preflop call is pretty slim, but might be correct.

Nick Royale · #20 08-23-2005, 10:35 AM

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?? - I thought we referred to players that play strange as "DONKS"?

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I've definately been away from this forum too long...