Tough/Interesting Bubble situation

[jomatty]

its a tricky spot and if they both get busted he gets the seat. thats what makes it tricky, that you can lose and still get the seat and if he wins you will be in bad shape whether you call or not. even though it would be nice to have your hand in there to give a better chance at knocking him out i think i let the other guys handle this one as i think the chances of winning a seat due to my hand beating him and no one else beating his is less than my chances of preserving my chips and being in a desperate but not dead shape if he does survive. if i would be all in in the blind the next hand then i would obviously call but in this situation you still have a little time to pick up a hand or at least double up and get through the blinds and have another round to let someone else mess up.
people do dumb things during the endgame of these tournys and i find it best to give them every resonable opportunity to commit a big blunder. some math guy may be able to prove disprove this in this situation though but i think that the advantage of your hand possibly knocking him out is less than the chance of you still winning a seat if you fold and give yourself a chance even if he wins.
matty

[meow_meow]

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Well damn, that makes me sad [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
BUT, I still stand by my all in call, villain actually had the hand I put him on. From my post:

"I am definately going all-in here. The range of hands that can beat you here are ugly. Any pair or any A10 or better can win this, but my feeling is that he is raising with a junk hand, A or K high, possibly KQ ".

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did you bother to read my analysis of why calling is incorrect?

[Guernica4000]

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Assuming that this is a 11+R turbo...which may or may not be correct. The blinds are almost certainly going up before it gets to hero, so he can't make it through the blinds without winning a hand.

If you fold and villain wins the hand, you have to win a hand at or before your SB.
If you fold and villain loses, woohoo

If you call and villain wins the hand, you have to win both your big and small blinds (actually, it might be worse than this given the antes, your odds of making the cut drop to near zero).

If you call and villain loses, woohoo.

There are 3 players left to act behind you. Very likely none of them have a better hand than you. The range of hands that villain will go in with here may be as narrow as AA-TT, AK-AQ, or as wide as any PP, any A, some K good kicker, maybe some Q-high.

Assuming both blinds will call and check it down regardless of holdings, if villain pushes with the narrow range, he has about 54% equity vs 2 random hands, and 40% equity vs. 2 random hands and A9s. For the broad range, the corresponding numbers are 44 and 28%.

If you fold, it's kinda difficult to put a number on your chances of winning the first hand you play in the next 4 (which is what you have to do). This is very dependant on whether you'll get a lot of callers, but it's probably in the 30-40% range. Lets say 30%, because even if you win that hand you are not guaranteed to get in.

So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67

Even though the 0.3 number is extremely rough, it can get as low as 0.17 before calling is as good as folding.

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Meow,

I think you need to include some % for someone going out at the other table too. That makes it an clear fold IMO.

[illegit]

If we ascribe the wider ROH, which i certainly would given my read on villain's play, and the situation then we have basically a borderline call not an incorrect one
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So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67

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With the wider ROH it's folding = 0.44 + 0.3 = 0.77 Calling = 0.72 + 0.02 = 0.74. Still a fold but that's largely influenced by the 30% estimate, and in addition there are times that you fold and win your upcoming hand where you're at approximately 30% equity, and STILL don't get a seat as you might still be the shortest stack at the table if UTG triples up on this hand. In other words your chances of coming in 12th can be, and probably are less than your chances of winning your upcoming must play hand, in which you might have @ 30% equity.

Also I think the chances of someone on the other table going out first (no one at the other table <10,000 in chips) is basically negligible.

[meow_meow]

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If we ascribe the wider ROH, which i certainly would given my read on villain's play, and the situation then we have basically a borderline call not an incorrect one
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So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67

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With the wider ROH it's folding = 0.44 + 0.3 = 0.77 Calling = 0.72 + 0.02 = 0.74. Still a fold but that's largely influenced by the 30% estimate, and in addition there are times that you fold and win your upcoming hand where you're at approximately 30% equity, and STILL don't get a seat as you might still be the shortest stack at the table if UTG triples up on this hand. In other words your chances of coming in 12th can be, and probably are less than your chances of winning your upcoming must play hand, in which you might have @ 30% equity.

Also I think the chances of someone on the other table going out first (no one at the other table <10,000 in chips) is basically negligible.

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No, because the villain has only 44% equity (0.56 he busts) with the wider range. It really doesn't make too much difference, because the change in villain's equity if Hero calls is pretty similar whether villain has wide or narrow range.

[mikehildebrand]

I did, and you are in theory correct, I agree with your assessment 100%.