Tough/Interesting Bubble situation

[illegit]

This was a rough spot. Not for me, for a buddy but I thought it would make an interesting discussion. Could go in MTT forum but I think it has a strong theory element. What's the play here? Situation is it's a 350K qualifier. Top 12 gets seats into the 350K. 13 are left. Cali is in MP and is the 2nd shortest stack, UTG is the shortest with basically the same amount as Cali but slightly less. UTG seems semi-competent and understands the situation.

***** Hand History for Game 2514992305 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:14727873 Level:15 Blinds (1500/3000) - Thursday, August 11, 01:15:47 EDT 2005
Table $350K Qualifier(421073) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 3: CSMUSA ( $56087 )
Seat 8: stalagtite ( $8940 )
Seat 10: BBtB05 ( $29660 )
Seat 4: karlcoy ( $17576 )
Seat 5: Tweak024 ( $25790 )
Seat 6: DavSchweiger ( $6116 )
Seat 1: Caliworm99 ( $6589 )
Trny:14727873 Level:15
Blinds (1500/3000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Caliworm99 [ Ac 9c ]
DavSchweiger is all-In [6116]
stalagtite folds.
BBtB05 folds.
Caliworm99 ?????????

Oh, and Cali has slightly more than the all-in so if both go out this hand he gets the seat. The big stack in the BB will likely call with any 2 cards and so might one of the other big stacks. Also, no player on the 2nd table is as short as the 3 on this table.

OH! And in case you're going to say anything about it, yes he played too tight on the bubble and he probably should have never gotten this short to begin with. But once he's there, now what?

[RIDGE45]

I say easy fold considering one if not two of the big stacks will call this all in and check it through hoping to eliminate this short stack.

I would like to here some people talk about why they would call, if they would.

No way that I'd call here. Someone's probably going to raise you all in if you do, just to end it right there, way too much to risk, just fold and pray. Plus, if the guy made it to this point in the tourney, he probaby realizes the situation he's in, he can survive another round, so he's probably woke up with a hand here. I fold.

[Guernica4000]

Easy fold. The player is seat 8 is also a short stacked compared to the blinds and with 4 hands to go before your buddy has to post a blind he can wait for a better spot. It is very likely that the big stacks will call so just sit back and watch the fire works. IMO

However, if you get raised all-in and there's four people in the pot, you can lose the hand and still make the top 12.

Not saying I would call, just adding another element to it.

[meow_meow]

Assuming that this is a 11+R turbo...which may or may not be correct. The blinds are almost certainly going up before it gets to hero, so he can't make it through the blinds without winning a hand.

If you fold and villain wins the hand, you have to win a hand at or before your SB.
If you fold and villain loses, woohoo

If you call and villain wins the hand, you have to win both your big and small blinds (actually, it might be worse than this given the antes, your odds of making the cut drop to near zero).

If you call and villain loses, woohoo.

There are 3 players left to act behind you. Very likely none of them have a better hand than you. The range of hands that villain will go in with here may be as narrow as AA-TT, AK-AQ, or as wide as any PP, any A, some K good kicker, maybe some Q-high.

Assuming both blinds will call and check it down regardless of holdings, if villain pushes with the narrow range, he has about 54% equity vs 2 random hands, and 40% equity vs. 2 random hands and A9s. For the broad range, the corresponding numbers are 44 and 28%.

If you fold, it's kinda difficult to put a number on your chances of winning the first hand you play in the next 4 (which is what you have to do). This is very dependant on whether you'll get a lot of callers, but it's probably in the 30-40% range. Lets say 30%, because even if you win that hand you are not guaranteed to get in.

So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67

Even though the 0.3 number is extremely rough, it can get as low as 0.17 before calling is as good as folding.

[illegit]

I think it's a call. 1st off i think his range is quite wide (as in any A, any K, any pair, any 2 broadway, maybe worse hands like Q9suited) because he realizes he's going to have to play either this hand or the next hand for all his chips (the blinds don't raise for a while still) because if he folds his next BB he's in deep shite. Hero's hand is a favorite against this ROH, but luckily for Hero anyone of the likely 3 others in the pot can win as long as it's not villain and he'll be fine. The danger with folding here is the 2 big stacks that call might not have as strong a hand as you, you may even have villain dominated. And if Villain doesn't lose this hand you're in deep trouble and will have to play for all your chips in the next 3-4 deals with likely a worse hand and likely in the same situation villain is in now (having to defeat 3 or more opponents). Making him have to beat out 3 hands (one fairly strong) rather than 2 (which may both be weak) is your best shot. I think this is both hero's and Villain's last stand only Hero is in the favorable situation of not caring which hand wins as long as it's not villains, and whether he calls or folds he's going to be in approximately just as much trouble either way if Villain wins IMO.

Obviously if hero has 1 chip less than villain folding and praying is a no-brainer.

How would it change your answer if you knew his hole cards? If you know villain has AX (X <8) and that 2 random hands behind will call I would think you would certainly call. What if you know it's KQ and 2 random hands behind will call? QQ? 22? AT-AK?

[mikehildebrand]

I am definately going all-in here. The range of hands that can beat you here are ugly. Any pair or any A10 or better can win this, but my feeling is that he is raising with a junk hand, A or K high, possibly KQ.

If I go all in and nobody calls here there are only two outcomes; 1) I win and take my seat in the bigger tourney or 2) I lose, but have SOME chips (and pray to god some other arse goes all in and loses before the BB gets to me).

If I go all in and get called there are more options; 1) I win (now I have nearly trippled up and have my seat), 2) I lose to the big stack as does the UTG (I still finish high enough to get my seat) or I lose to the UTG, but beat the big stack (same as # 2 in the previos situation, but now I have a few extra hundred).

If you fold, you really may have some big stack with Q-10 or some other big / rag hand that calls and loses to a Kx or Ax and doubles him up, or he just steals the blinds and now you are sitting on the bubble.

I think you pretty much have to make this a race and take your chances, you are on a hand that has a decent chance of being the best hand pre-flop. But I am an aggressive bubble player, so that is my opinion. Thanks for reading

[illegit]

Hero called. UTG had KQos. As suspected the two big stacks called, one with AK, the other with rags from the BB. Board came Q98K4 and Hero was finished as villain scooped the pot.

[mikehildebrand]

Well damn, that makes me sad [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
BUT, I still stand by my all in call, villain actually had the hand I put him on. From my post:

"I am definately going all-in here. The range of hands that can beat you here are ugly. Any pair or any A10 or better can win this, but my feeling is that he is raising with a junk hand, A or K high, possibly KQ ".