My bust hand from Sunday's PokerStars $500K guaranteed

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you believe that given online tournaments that you have to make this type of push in order to be successful? Is it all about hoping that you do get called by someone making a mistake taht you are counting on? or are really just hoping that he folds and you scoop it right then?

[/ QUOTE ]

You still aren't making the conceptual leap. You aren't really hoping anything about specific hands. You aren't saying I will push here because I hope he will call with AJ. You aren't saying I will fold here because he might have AA. You are taking into account all the possible hands your opponent might have and figuring out the action that fairs the best against them as a group.

So, in this particular situations you are saying, if I push here a larger percentage of the time he will fold and I will add slightly more than 20% to my stack. The times I'm called I will most likely only win about 30% of the time (against KK/QQ/AK) although sometimes I will win about 50% of the time (JJ/1010) and If I'm really unlucky I'm pretty much done against AA. Still despite the fact that getting called by this range makes me a 2:1 underdog, I'm sure that the open raiser will fold more than enough to make up for this and the push will on average make me chips. Thats my thought process in that situation, and yes you clearly need to make slike this to be successful in any tournament, not just online.

[CardSharpCook]

For what it's worth, I'm ok with peeling off 2.5BBs and checking out the flop. I've got position, and he should be betting into me regardless. I'm not even going to fold on all A/Qless flops. However, out-of-position, this is definately a push.

CSC

[MLG]

for the record, i think thats wrong, your argument has a lot more merit when you have 30x and AK, not with 17x and AQ.

[Seadood228]

I cannot believe that there are so many non-pushers there. I consider myself tight borderlining on weak, and I'd push this every day.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
for the record, i think thats wrong, your argument has a lot more merit when you have 30x and AK, not with 17x and AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the record, I agree that I'd rather do this with AK/30, but lets run some math on this....

Assumptions: 1) Hero folds all A/Qless flops. 2) On A/Q flops, hero averages a 10BB extraction rate. 3) On A/Q flops hero wins 80% of the time.

Hero loses 2.5BB 62% of the time.
Hero wins 12BBs (.8*10BB+4BBdeadmoney) 38% of the time.

This works out to a 3BB gain by making this play given these perameters.

If we push: Assumptions: 50/50 if called. Called 30% of the time

70% of the time we win 4BB
30% of the time we win .75BB (splitting the dead money)

We make 3BB if we make this play.

If you accept these numbers, it is 6 of 1, half dozen of the other. However, variance is lower just calling here.

CSC

I heart logic

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been unfortunate to be involved in many similar hand scenarios lately with aggressive players. And some one mentioned the stop and go to me instead of pushing, and I'm now a convert.

First off. Why go all in preflop here against a bigger stack than can bust you. Your not in the red zone of chips, and still have plenty of play left in your game here. I don't think we are down to a push or fold situations yet. At least not against bigger stacks.

My play stop and go. You just call. You flop a queen, best scenario, go all in. Villian's got a hard decision to call a big bet with only two cards to come and overcards.(Assuming he has AK) Same situation if you flop nothing.

Why all in is bad. You were right to start. Your FE is slim to the big stack and even if you spike a queen, after he calls he could still catch a card or cards to bust you.

I had a similar situation. I knew I was ahead and pushed with king/jack suited to an overly aggressive player who called me with jack/ten offsuit. I had no FE, flop all bricks and he cathes a ten on the turn and jack on the river to bust me. If I had done the stop and go. Would he have called my all in with two cards to come with jack ten offsuit. This guy was nuts, so maybe, but at least he's not in till the river with the stop and go, and I'm giving him a chance to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem new, so I won't be so harsh...but your thinking is way, way, way off here on multiple points.

[Bigwig]

I've been away for a while. For those that are wondering, villain called with 77. He hit a set. I almost sucked out for a flush on the river, but to no avail. Just FYI.