My bust hand from Sunday's PokerStars $500K guaranteed

[locutus2002]

I like your push.

Some more back of the envelope crude estimates!
Hero is about 50% against a modest range for villain (77++,a9s++,kq). So the push is only EV+ to the extent of hero's FE which hero feels is low and the dead money in the pot. How low? Villain is getting ~1.5:1 in the pot to call a push and has to be 40% in the hand to justify a call. If villain puts hero on a tight range of 99++,AQ++, villain can still call his entire range and get 40% equity. Given hero's read, and villain's stack, I think hero's FE is pretty small. Maybe villain throws down only the Harrington 10% which we will estimate at ~10%, so hero's FE is only worth ~10% X T1850 = ~T180.
There's T850 in the pot of dead money (not belonging to either player) which hero gets 1/2:T425.
Hero bets T7000 to win ~T600 (T425+T180); it has alot of variance for a little gain, but hero should welcome the variance at this stage in the mid-tourney, and it's CEV+.
The estimates are crude, but it will come out CEV+.

I have ignored further action by other players.

[MLG]

ok, tell me how you outplay somebody on the flop when you have 14 BBs in your stack, and there are 7 BBs in the pot.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
There were about 1100 players remaining out of 3079 starting. So the average stack was ~t7000. The blinds were 200/400 25 ante. I had the avg., 7000.

I was in the CO, villain was one seat to my right. Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands. So he wasn't being a cowboy and getting lucky. But, my thoughts were that his confidence was high, and perhaps my fold equity was low.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I push here close to every time regardless of FE. Big stack calls with A-10+, KQ and 66+ here. You dominate him more than he dominates you.

But just out of curiosity, do we consider the blinds still to act in the equation at all? Does that keep some from pushing here?

Brad

[JC_Saves]

You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

[JC_Saves]

versus going out well from it?

I am starting to believe that Aggressive really is synonomous with Getting Lucky. People advocate pushing in situations like this if they are going to play this type of hand and yet there is absolutely no reason to push against a raise with a hand that is easily dominated.

Do most of you that have been successful rely on hoping to get lucky in these tournaments more than actually playing solid poker?

I mean, I watched you this last weekend MLG and some of the hands that you played in the face of a huge raise were just silly, which I know you will agree because you said so at the time. You got lucky an incredible number of times. So much so I wondered if this is your typical style of play?


I mean no disrespect to the Pooh-Bahs on here. After all who am I, but I think it is a valid point when discussing stategies and playing hands, and especially when commenting on hands of others.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Do most of you that have been successful rely on hoping to get lucky in these tournaments more than actually playing solid poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment is applicable to those types of players who would reraise with AT here (or even AJ) and call big reraise/pushes with a hand like 66. Going all-in with fold equity isn't begging to 'get lucky.' That's just absurd.

[MLG]

yeah, you're right. Im a bad player who pushes a lot and gets lucky. With the way I play, I'll never win anything. Oh, wait, I've won a lot.

You are making blind assertions. You want to convince me that not reraising all-in here with AQ is the right, play then do some actual hand analysis. What range of hands do you think the big stack will raise with? Of those hands which ones will he call a push with and which ones will he fold? When he calls, how often will you win and how often will he win?

You want to think I play badly thats fine. You'll still sit there and marvel at how lucky I must be to get the results I do. Try offering some proof instead of hand waving.

[colson10]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmmm, bubble.

colson10

[mic_check12]

Get the chips in. If you pass up opportunities to come over the top like this then you aint gonna be winning tournaments. Ok sometimes he has a big hand and you're gone but this is far outweighted by a) the number of times he folds and b)the number of times he calls and loses.

Some of the advice in this thread is horribly weak tight, perhaps coming from people who don't play this tournament too often and don't really understand how quick the blinds rise in it. You will get nowhere without gambling here and there and this is certainly a spot to gamble in.