Bad SB push?

[jeffraider]

The BB is a infrequent 2+2 poster whose name I noticed in the Suspected 2+2er thread. Was it nuts to think he could fold?

Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: bblevs ( $1260 )
Seat 2: Jumper13 ( $1160 )
Seat 3: XZZZX ( $905 )
Seat 4: HERO ( $730 )
Seat 6: LucidYoda ( $460 )
Seat 7: JamesLowry3 ( $1360 )
Seat 8: Kantii ( $1545 )
Seat 9: mike_mac ( $580 )
Trny:14481748 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 6c Tc ]
JamesLowry3 folds.
Kantii folds.
mike_mac folds.
bblevs folds.
Jumper13 folds.
XZZZX folds.
HERO is all-In [655]

I think it's a push. When I first read it I thought it was a pretty easy push, partly b/c I agree with your read on the BB being a solid player who isn't calling with a ridiculous range here.

But crunching the numbers made me less sure. It all depends on the BB and how he reads you. If he's willing to call here with top 67% (any pair, any A, K, Q, suited J, suited T, J3o+, T6o+, 96o+, 94s+, 87o, 85s+, 75s+) then pushing your hand is exactly on the borderline. Is his range that wide? I doubt it, but I dunno, maybe: Does he think you're capable of pushing any two here? If he thinks you are, then he's correct in calling a ton of hands, like top 80% or something. And then the psychological arms race (If he, then I, but if I, then he...) is off and running.

SB vs shortie BB situations often make me think twice. But I think this is a push. The math, your read, and also that it's eight-handed in level 5 all lean that way.

[Matt R.]

Do you think he believes you're a solid player and would know to push a very wide range here? i.e. does he know you're a 2+2'er or at least know that you're aggressive in these type of spots. If he does, I'd fold since he's so short stacked. He'll call a lot here, and you can afford to pass on the 225 in the pot -- you can't afford to push and lose the hand. I'd much rather push from the button next hand.

If he doesn't realize you're good at push/fold scenarios, I think pushing is okay, but only barely.... I'd personally probably still fold here, but I play the lower levels and can usually get in much better than marginal situations later.

[jeffraider]

I haven't told him I'm a 2+2er but I'm sure he suspects I'm pushing a lot of hands here because of the previous orbit.