No substitute for luck sometimes...

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
6 to 1 on third
antes .80; bring in .50; call .50; raise 1.00 = 2.80 in pot

it costs him .50 to call the raise vs 2.80 already in the pot which is close to 6 to 1.

Equity of an Axx 2 flush runs about .2 and higher against most pairs

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the explanation, Ray. I was thinking it was a $1 to call the raise.

As for the equity, are you saying he had a greater than 20% chance of winning the hand? When, I run AcQc2d against a pair, I get around a 40% chance of winning the hand.

That leads me to my final question: what relation do the immediate pot odds have to the odds of winning the hand on 7th street? That's like comparing apples to oranges. If you look at what the immediate pot odds are offering, then you need to compare those odds to the odds of winning the hand on the next card--not the odds of winning the hand with four more cards to come. And, since there is no card that will win the hand on 4th street, how are the immediate pot odds relevant?

[RayGarlington]

[ QUOTE ]
are you saying he had a greater than 20% chance of winning the hand? When, I run AcQc2d against a pair, I get around a 40% chance of winning the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was say 20%+ equity, but was pitting him against 2 pairs rather than 1.

[ QUOTE ]
what relation do the immediate pot odds have to the odds of winning the hand on 7th street?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your 'necessary' outs vs the immediate pot odds is the best information you have at the time you are deciding to bet; however, if you really want to call anyway you can use your powers of rationalization and knowledge of implied odds, effective odds (etc) not to mention your feelings that you are about to HIT to go ahead and make the call/raise.

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I was say 20%+ equity, but was pitting him against 2 pairs rather than 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, I see. Thanks again for an explanation.

[ QUOTE ]
I think your 'necessary' outs vs the immediate pot odds is the best information you have at the time you are deciding to bet;

[/ QUOTE ]
If you look at the necessary outs for the next card only, then the immediate pot odds are relevent. But, as far as I can tell, in seven card stud there are no "outs" that early in a hand. And, it doesn't make mathematical sense to compare the immediate pot odds to the odds you'll win with 4 cards to come. The actual odds you receive from the pot will almost always be lower--a lot lower. As a result, you'll be fooled into calling with weak hands, and you'll end up not getting paid enough when you win to cover all your losses when you lose.

Here's an example:
There's $99 in the pot on 3rd street. It's $1 to call. So, the pot is offering 99:1 odds. There aren't many hands that have less than a 1% chance of winning, so it's an easy call right?

Well, what if the fixed betting limit for the rest of the rounds is $1 million, and you are up against a single opponent? Are you ever going to get paid 99:1 odds on your hand? If there is any more betting, you will only get very close to 1:1 for winning the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
however, if you really want to call anyway you can use your powers of rationalization and knowledge of implied odds, effective odds (etc) not to mention your feelings that you are about to HIT to go ahead and make the call/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol. It seems like a lot of that goes on in these hand analyses.

Thanks again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bartholow]

I think your 99:1 example is interesting and perhaps edifying. It is essentially correct to say that your corrected pot odds are about 1:1. But are you saying you wouldn't call getting 99:1 on 3rd street with any hand that did not have 1:1 odds of winning? Because that would be a serious mistake. Because if you look at the flipside of corrected odds, implied odds, you'll see that your implied odds are something like 4 million:1 (and that's assuming you don't get to raise somewhere in there [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

Going back to the example at hand, it is true that it's not a simple matter of "I'm getting 6-1, I should call because my pot equity is higher than that." But that doesn't mean your pot odds don't matter. You need to make some complicated estimates of implied odds, corrected odds, and how your hand will play out depending on the cards you hit that convince you to continue. So what we're really saying is "with those current pot odds, and given the relative sizes of the later bets, you are getting a good price to see another card and then make a decision, in my experience and estimation which is the best we can do".

[BTirish]

Thanks for the replies, everyone. I've been tightening up my play a bit since returning to the game (took about a month off from playing). My %/4th is usually below 20% now.

Villian did, in fact, have K's full. This is what I thought most likely, but in the process of just calling it down, I ended up with the case Q.

So you all would call on 7th with the 3 Q's? My actual thought on 6th was that I would fold unimproved and call with the boat... but odds are good that I would have called unimproved when it actually came down to it.

So, if I hadn't improved, this is one of those "gotta pay it off for the good of society" situations?

[jon_1van]

No way Bart,

You can do these calculations on the fly. Just look at this example

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...;o=14&vc=1

[Andy B]

I think that calling third when you're half-in is fine. If the bring-in were smaller, this would be a fold.

Fourth screams for a check-raise.

On fifth, I definitely three-bet. When the other guy caps, though, it sure looks like he has a set of Kings. When he makes the open pair, it's starting to look like real trouble, but the pot's huge, and there are some real monkeys at this level.

Ni han.