ICM says this is a fold. I always thought this was a push...wtf

[Unoriginalname]

NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14334452 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, July 28, 15:55:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 13810 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 4: pkrplyerAA ( $1470 )
Seat 5: shannonsoss ( $1545 )
Seat 7: RAF77 ( $3290 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $880 )
Seat 10: lacvanle ( $815 )
Trny:14334452 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ad 7c ]
>You have options at Table 13973 Table!.
Hero is all-In [880]

I don't get this at all. A7o is a pretty decent push hand. I don't think I'm going to get much better at this point. I'm short stacked and starting to get desperate and those 225 chips will increase my stack by about 25%. I post the BB next round, which will make me even shorter. Why is SNG power tools telling me that this is a bad push unless my opponents will only call with the top 8% of hands? That's pretty damn tight. Am I going crazy? Is this really an easy fold?

[1C5]

You have to push this.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

It's not your cards so much as your position that might make this a fold. Determining the correct play on this hand depends very much on having accurate calling ranges as you're pushing into alot of people. Unless your table was unusually tight, I'd definitely fold this.

[BadMongo]

I would insta-push this, and probably a few hands that are even worse. I'm not sure why ICM says this is a fold (and a pretty easy one at that). You are UTG, but if you don't pick up a hand in the blinds you will be left with virtually no folding equity.

This seems like a flaw in ICM analysis to me. Maybe someone with a better understanding of the model can explain this?

[KramerTM]

Wow. I'm confused myself. I've been pushing this (my min pushing hand here is like A5).

[Jbrochu]

How close are the ICM numbers...? A clear fold or borderline...? When you open up the calling ranges beyond the top 8% of hands, you bring in many of the Ax hands that have you dominated.

I would push this if I've been tight or not shown down junk to this point, and the blinds have been tight. If I've been pushing several recent hands, been forced to show down trash, or the blinds are loose, I think I fold this.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not your cards so much as your position that might make this a fold. Determining the correct play on this hand depends very much on having accurate calling ranges as your pushing into alot of people. Unless your table was unusually tight, I'd definitely fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your calling range in the other seats?

[BadMongo]

I don't think MY calling range matters as much as what the typical player's calling range is. They are very different.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
How close are the ICM numbers...? A clear fold or borderline...?

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the other players on what I thought were reasonable estimations of the other players calling ranges, given that this is a 20+2. Something along the lines of A7+, KJ+, 44+. I widened the range slightly for the big stacks.

Still a clear fold, not even borderline.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this at all. A7o is a pretty decent push hand. I don't think I'm going to get much better at this point. I'm short stacked and starting to get desperate and those 225 chips will increase my stack by about 25%. I post the BB next round, which will make me even shorter. Why is SNG power tools telling me that this is a bad push unless my opponents will only call with the top 8% of hands? That's pretty damn tight. Am I going crazy? Is this really an easy fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is because you're misunderstanding what ICM is and what it says. It's not a perfect model by any means. It's not taking into account you're going to be UTG with big blinds (and possibly even rising blinds). It's telling you its immediate approximation of your equity if you push or fold right now.

To the forum: it seems a lot of new, and some old, posters are finding ICM and just using it as a be all and end all crutch. If you don't understand how it works, why it approximates your equity in a certain way, and what it doesn't take into account in its calculations, you shouldn't be using it. Shadow's thread has plenty of links with discussions about ICM's workings and what its limitations are. If you haven't read them then don't bother using eastbay's tool.