Isolating a TAG

[Entity]

Hey Crunchy,

Do me a favor.

Look at the pot size. Now look at the fact that you're usually calling 2BB here, once he bets the turn. Now give me a hand range. And tell me whether or not you're ahead often enough to call down.

I'm being serious here. I'd like you to do the math rather than just posting thinking that calling down is super profitable.

Rob

[hellite]

A10 is a good hand. However, the hand is greatly devalued when the flop has been raised. This is why it is usually incorrect to cold call preflop with A10. I'm not sure this is a good position to 3-bet. I do not usually like reraising what appears to be a four flush on the flop. I would prefer to do it on the turn. The turn however does not offer the option of the check raise, because of the possibility you take a free card.

[Justin A]

A2o sucks. Do this with hands like QTo or T8s instead.

[crunchy1]

Sorry it took awhile - it was taco night at home and I'm the cook! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I consider myself far from the math "geeks" of the forum - but, I'll give it a shot. Please correct me where I go wrong.

Here's a few pokerstoves of some hand ranges - which is where I think the biggest obstacle of this analysis lies. The difference between one and the other is the inclusion/exclusion of the 99/88 pairs. Personally, I favor the second analysis because I think those hands check-raise the turn (I also think that two pair checkraises the turn) - this is oviously up for debate.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: Ac Kd 9c 8h

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.6162 % 34.34% 12.27% { Ah2c }
Hand 2: 53.3838 % 41.11% 12.27% { 99-88, A9s-A2s, K8s+, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Q9s, JcTc, 98s }</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: Ac Kd 9c 8h

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.7879 % 39.63% 14.16% { Ah2c }
Hand 2: 46.2121 % 32.05% 14.16% { A9s-A2s, K8s+, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Q9s, JcTc, 98s }</pre><hr />

Since we're either winning or losing 2BBs I think that this would calculate out this way:

Case #1: (.3434 * 2) - (.4111 * 2) = -.13 BB/Hand
Case #2: (39.63 * 2) - (.3205 * 2) = +.15 BB/Hand

I think the big difference here depends on what Villian's stop'n'go dictates his hand range to be. In either instance - I think it's close (assuming my claculations are correct - in which I place absolutely no stock).

I never, for the record, said that calling down from the turn is "super profitable". I do, however, think that the isolation attempt, in general, can be, and is for me, a profitable play.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
A2o sucks. Do this with hands like QTo or T8s instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read through some of the posts in this thread, but not all of them, so I don't know if this was mentioned before as well. You're very likely to only get action by hands that beat u when u raise with crap aces. I know, I know, u don't want action, but u can have any two cards and have the same fold equity. Pick some cards that have better post-flop expectation when u can't fold him out. I would much rather raise with non ace, decent hands such as the ones Justin mentioned. Post-flop has been beat to death, but i also think u need to fold the turn.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not usually like reraising what appears to be a four flush on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen you make this reference to a flush draw several times now. Crunchy said this is the first time he's raised villian in this position, so villian doesn't know he's got a crappy hand. If you were villian, what suited hands would you put an EP raiser on that didn't include the A?

Because some people put their egos first and the right play comes in a distance second.