What are standard streaks for not getting 1st due to variance?

[Unoriginalname]

Did multiple searches on this and didn't see any threads discussing it so thought I'd post one up.

I'm not talking about OOTM streaks, I'm just talking about lack of 1st place streaks. I just went 45 tournaments before I got a win. My ITM was the same as usual (actually slightly higher). Are streaks like that fairly common due to variance? What's your longest no tournament win streak?

I did some quick calculations in my calculator. I have about a 13.5% chance of getting first place according to SNG tracker. So, the chance of going 45 games with no tournament wins is: (0.865)^45 = 0.00146 = 0.146%. This will happen about 1/685 times for any given strech of 45 games. Not sure how to think about these numbers. Someone help me analyze this more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KSKevin]

I think you should be analyzing these situations less and analyzing your heads up play more. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Seriously though, I've had similar streaks where my ITM% stays constant but where my ROI drops from 20% to 0 just because of the number of 1st place finishes. My most recent streak lasted for about 300 tournaments with a 5% ROI despite my ITM being higher than usual. Unless you can find something wrong with your 3 handed or heads up play, I would just keep on playing and expect your luck to turn around.

[gildwulf]

I think you need to go through your last 50 tourneys where you busted out 3rd or 2nd and analyze your aggressiveness and your heads up play. My guess is that there are some serious leaks in your play (it is easy to blame it on variance but you should look to find the problem first before variance gets blamed).

If you want help, post heads up situations, maybe 10 different preflop hands in one post and ask if the pushes were correct or if you should have pushed. You should get at least 2-3 responses.

[AA suited]

20 50+5, 50% ITM, all 3rds (thus -10% roi) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
This is probably due to variance.

8 table 50+5, 100% itm, all 3rds
This was due to me being overwhelmed with all 8 tables contantly beeping at me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] But another way to look at it was that i just made $400 in 1hr [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

8 table 50+5, 100% itm, all 3rds
This was due to me being overwhelmed with all 8 tables contantly beeping at me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] But another way to look at it was that i just made $400 in 1hr [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop with "the glass is half full" stuff. As I see it there was $600 up for grabs and you got $0 of it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]